Thursday, December 27, 2007

Eli Just Threw Another Interception

All I've heard for the past season of talk radio, when not discussing Johan Santana or the Mitchell Report, is that Eli Manning is terrible. There's little debate from the fanbase. It's been three and a half years of starts for Eli Manning and since that's more than enough time to judge the career of Eli, it is worth doing so. There's no doubt this is a fairly thin era for the quarterback, in an an era in which the position is as important as it's ever been. So where does Eli stand? Here's my rankings of all of the (meaningful) QBs in the NFL today.

1.) Tom Brady, QB, New England Patriots - Maybe you've heard of him. There's no sense in debating it, especially after this season. He's got the rings and he can certainly put up the numbers. He's an easy choice and the only choice.

2.) Peyton Manning, QB, Indianapolis Colts - Another clear choice, but clearly No. 2. If he could win a few more Super Bowls, he could stack up with Brady. As it stands, Brady and Manning are clearly the best two QBs in the NFL and the only surefire Hall of Famers on this list currently in their prime (though Peyton is fast approaching decline).

3.) Ben Roethlisberger, QB, Pittsburgh Steelers - A year ago, Roethlisberger is in the 5-10 region, second tier, in the league. This year, he finally put up the numbers to match his winning record. This is also the first year I felt Roethlisberger did more to win games than the rest of his team. He stepped out from the shadow and earned a top 5 ranking on this list. He's probably the only QB in the top 10 of this list that has entered his prime as well (Tony Romo and David Garrard are still building to their prime).

4.) Brett Favre, QB, Green Bay Packers - Favre is, of course, the only other surefire Hall of Famer, but is certainly significantly past his prime. He's a great quarterback, but he's never been one of my favorites, because he has the one trait you hate in a QB more than any other - reckless inconsistently. Earlier in his career he was a gunslinger, yes, but people who say "Oh, he's always been like that" are simply not correct. From 1994 to 1997, the prime of his career, he was +89 in TDs to INTs. And while he is still a very effective QB in these slim times, his +11 number this year is tied for the seventh best total of his career - hardly more than average.

5.) Tony Romo, QB, Dallas Cowboys - I don't rank him as high as some might because of his short resume. I certainly think he has the ability to be great, but let's let him show it first. The NFC is weak and doesn't figure to get stronger any time within the next few years due to a strange phenomenon in which the AFC dominates both the top of the league (Pats, Colts, Steelers) and the bottom (Dolphins, Raiders, Ravens, Jets) and therefore the draft. That gives Romo plenty of chances to make a mark in a Super Bowl and increase his position on this list. With Favre almost done, and Matt Hasselbeck on the downslope, Romo is the only clear top level starter in the NFC.

6.) Matt Hasselbeck, QB, Seattle Seahawks - Hasselbeck is clearly on the downside of his career, but he has a few good years left in him. This year he showed he can still carry a team when it's necessary. The gap between Romo and Hasselbeck is not very big. I gave serious consideration to switching them on this list. Hasselbeck has taken his team to a Super Bowl and put up Pro Bowl numbers for more than one and a half years. He's also five years older though and over the next five years Romo will be entering his prime, whereas Hasselbeck will be closing out his career. I really like Hasselbeck, but I doubt he'll ever get another chance to win a Super Bowl. He's still underrated and deserves this spot on the list.

7.) Drew Brees, QB, New Orleans Saints - In the interest of full disclosure, Brees absolutely ruined my fantasy football team this year. I'm still bitter. But I do like Brees on the whole. I wrote an article many years ago (which you can look up on Google) advocating the Chargers not drafting Eli Manning or Philip Rivers and instead building around Brees, who I felt was very underrated. Granted they fleeced the Giants and that was the right thing to do, but the point still remains - Brees was underrated and has since proved it. He's also clearly still better than both Manning and Rivers these four years later. He should rebound next year with Deuce McAllister back.

8.) Carson Palmer, QB, Cincinnati Bengals - If you could build a prototypical QB, Brady and Peyton Manning would be the two closest currently playing, but Palmer would be third. He had an awful year in 2007. There's no debating how bad he was considering how many weapons he has to throw to. But let's not forget that he threw 60 TDs and 25 INTs the past two seasons. If he hadn't had such an awful year in 2007, he'd be a few spots higher on this list. There was no excuse for this year, but at his best he's the third QB in the league. This year he was about the 15th best, so I'll put him somewhere in the middle.

9.) David Garrard, QB, Jacksonville Jaguars - I'd like to put Garrard higher on this list, but he's done nothing to justify it. I also have a sneaking suspiscion he's very lucky to have Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones-Drew in his backfield. Could he go out and win as the leader of his team? I have no idea. As I wrote earlier, Roethlisberger was in that position in the past. He's come out and shown he can. Garrard has yet to do that. He's still a top 10 QB though because he's done exactly what he should in the current role he inhabits. He doesn't make mistakes, almost literally none, and that's a great boost to his team. You can't ask a player to do anything more than play to the gameplan and play to it well. Garrard always does that.

10.) Jeff Garcia, QB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Garcia is only six months younger than Brett Favre, so despite having a good season and a good track record of winning (except for on the Browns, of course), he's almost done. Still though, put him on a good team and he can carry you to the playoffs. I'm not sure he'd do it in the AFC, but he doesn't play in the AFC, so we'll never know. He's also pretty injury prone. But he was second in the NFL in fewest INTs per pass attempts (to Garrard) and he wins games.

11.) Marc Bulger, QB, St. Louis Rams - I don't exactly know what to do with Bulger. I think you could probably put him ninth, but you could just as easily put him here. He is a legitimate starter in this league and once you get past No. 13 (as you'll see), that isn't necessarily the case aymore. He was awful in every category this year, even moreso than Carson Palmer. His team just totally imploded. And frankly he didn't deserve the money he got on his contract prior to this year, because he's really only had one great season (2006) while he's being paid like a top 5 QB. He isn't that, but he is an entrenched starter.

12.) Donovan McNabb, QB, Philadelphia Eagles - No one likes McNabb in Philly, but he is still good enough to win games. McNabb's biggest problem, and it is a big one, is injuries. On the field, he still puts up pretty good numbers. There's no doubt he's on the downside of his career though and as a mobile QB that means even more. He can be a decent pocket passer with the right team around him and he's still clearly in the top half of the league. His completion percentage is low, but his INTs are low too. And let's not forget the only time he had a legit wide receiver, he went to the Super Bowl. I think he could still, in a weak NFC, and assuming he somehow stays healthy a full year.

13.) Jake Delhomme, QB, Carolina Panthers - It's a bit hard to know what to do with Delhomme considering he didn't play much at all this year. He actually played very well when he did (8 TDs, 1 INT in 3 games), but his arm injury could be pretty serious and he's not exactly a young pup. If he bounces back and plays like he did in 2004 and 2005 he can be a top 10 QB. He was showing some signs of decline last year (though not large signs, still a lower QB rating and 7 fewer TDs than in 2005 despite just 4 less attempts) and his return is still a question mark. I've always like Delhomme though, so hopefully he'll bounce back. If he does, he'll surpass Jeff Garcia at least, who is certainly on the decline, and probably Donovan McNabb as well.

13.) Jay Cutler, QB, Denver Broncos - See? That's what we call a drop. I think Cutler has the potential to be a Pro Bowl QB in this league, but we obviously haven't seen it yet. His team is average at best and his offensive weapons are as well. His offensive line isn't nearly as good as the Broncos have had in recent years and while Brandon Marshall is a talented receiver, he's still developing along with Cutler. Travis Henry didn't work out nearly as well as everyone (including me) thought he would. He has a big arm and he has a much better completion percentage than any of the other young QBs who'd be in this spot (Derek Anderson, Philip Rivers, Eli Manning). He just needs to learn the position more and the team needs to get stronger around him.

14.) Derek Anderson, QB, Cleveland Browns - I'm a Browns fan and I hold Anderson to high standards. He's had one good season and it wasn't as good as most would like you to believe. He didn't deserve the Pro Bowl many thought he got snubbed on. The first six weeks, he went up and down like a yo-yo in QB ratings. After that he settled into a very mediocre string for the rest of the season, hovering in the 70s and low 80s. That's not terrible, but it's certainly average. And he laid an egg in the biggest game of the season, throwing four interceptions against the Bengals in Week 16. He also has way too low a completion percentage (56.6%) considering his very talented receivers - Braylon Edwards, Joe Jurevicius and Kellen Winslow Jr. We'll see if he builds on this season.

15.) Philip Rivers, QB, San Diego Chargers - Honestly, Rivers's team has done more to justify this position than he has. His numbers were very pedestrian this year. He was very solid last season, but you never like to see a young player take a significant step back, especially on a team that is maybe the most talent rich in the NFL. Maybe it was the coaching change, but even while the rest of the team got it together down the stretch, winning five straight, Rivers had one great game, two good games and two bad games. I think he can be a winning QB, but I'm not sure he'll ever be a star QB. Right now, he really just needs to get out of the way of LaDainian Tomlinson.

16.) Kurt Warner, QB, Arizona Cardinals - I know, I know, older than dirt. He can still play a little in this league though. His numbers (90 QB rating, 3,117 yards, 24 TD, 15 INT) are clearly better than a few guys ahead of him, but his age knocks him down a few notches. If you give him good protection and good receivers he's no different than a Drew Bledsoe or Vinny Testaverde. He can play forever. He's not going to take you to a Super Bowl at this point in his career, but frankly he's better than a lot of younger QBs. If you are building a team, he's obviously not someone you take, but if you want to win a game tomorrow he's better than a dozen supposedly more talented guys.

17.) Eli Manning, QB, New York Giants - Well, well, well, here's our boy. The latter Manning comes in one spot behind the man whose job he took in New York. If you had told me that right now, some four years later, I'd rather have Warner on my team than Eli, I wouldn't have believed you. But honestly, right now that's the case. Manning has been awful this year (70.9 QB rating, 3,085 yards, 19 TDs, 19 INTs). He makes more good plays than a lot of QBs in the league, but he also makes a lot more dumb plays. He instills no confidence in you when watching him. If it weren't for the fact that his team wins, he'd be a few spots lower on this list. The thing that is most scary though is that he's getting progressively worse as a QB. His interceptions and fumbles are trending upwards and his touchdowns are going down. That's just an awful sign for a QB who should be entering his prime.

18.) Matt Schaub, QB, Houston Texans - I'm not sure why everyone expected Schaub to come out this year and put up Pro Bowl numbers, but he did very well for a first-year QB. A few starts in Atlanta in relief didn't mean he wouldn't go through some growing pains in Houston. His numbers were pretty solid, he just needs to cut down on the INTs. He had a 66.4 completion percentage, which is very good. He's in the position where he could really step up and improve next season and launch up a few spots. He has the tools to do so and the completion percentage and lack of sacks is promising.

19.) Chad Pennington, QB, New York Jets - If you play Pennington in the right system he can still be a very effective QB. We all know he's not going to scare you with his arm, but that's fine. He just needs to play in a ball control offense. Give him protection and a good running game and he's a playoff QB. He's not going to win games on his own, but he's not going to lose them either. He did lead the NFL in completion percentage through Week 16 (though only 9 games). Obviously that is because most of his passes were dinks and dunks, but it's still not a bad thing. Minnesota could really use a guy like Pennington.

20.) Jon Kitna, QB, Detroit Lions - Kitna makes a lot of stupid plays. That's the best way to describe his game. He gets sacked too much, he throws too many interceptions and he fumbles too much. I also happen to think he says a lot of stupid things. And he's old and has never won a thing in his life. Other than that, he's a great QB. Granted his protection was awful this year and the running game was always questionable, but there's no excuse for having more INTs than TDs when you have Roy Williams and Calvin Johnson on your team. If he could cut down on all of the stupid plays, he'd be a viable QB in this league. But I'm not holding my breath.

21.) Sage Rosenfels, QB, Houston Texans - It's a bit shocking, I know, but Rosenfels actually had a good season. He's never really had an opportunity to prove himself, but I think he could actually play a little in the NFL. Over the past two years, on an average at best Houston team, he's had 17 TDs and 12 INTs and a 65.1 completion percentage - pretty good numbers. Maybe if you gave him a full season somewhere he'd be awful, but I think he'd be pretty solid. No, he's not a legitimate QB in the league, but his numbers are much better than a lot of young players that will soon be appearing on this list.

22.) Jason Campbell, QB, Washington Redskins - Here's one of those young, up-and-comers in the NFL. I think Campbell is decent, but nothing he does is impressive. And he's been outplayed, albeit in the very short term, by Doug Collins this year. The jury is very much still out, but he's improved slightly from his starting point last season. I don't really see him as being anything more than an average QB in this league, but maybe he'll be slightly better than that.

23.) Vince Young, QB, Tennessee Titans - Just because your team wins, it doesn't mean you are a good QB. Let's be clear, the Titans win because of their defense and this year because of a solid ground attack by LenDale White. Young has 9 TDs and 17 INTs - by far the worst ratio in the NFL. And his 376 yards and 3 TDs rushing aren't exactly groundbreaking either. Tarvaris Jackson, Tony Romo, Ben Roethlisberger and Jay Cutler are about as effective running (similar yards per carry and TDs). Young is a massively overrated QB. He hasn't proven anything in this league yet. His completion percentage and total yards have gone up this year, but almost every other number (TDs, INTs, rushing yards, rushing TDs) has gotten worse. He has a lot of room for improvement and he better start showing it if he really wants to be a top 15 QB in the league.

24.) Damon Huard, QB, Kansas City Chiefs - Huard really impressed me last year. I thought he had a chance to be a halfway decent QB (in the 15-20 range) in the league. Afterall, he did have 11 TDs and only 1 INT. Well, he was given a chance this year from the start and he's been much worse (11 TDs, 13 INTs). He's really only a back-up in this league. As far as back-ups go, he's not awful.

25.) Brian Griese, QB, Chicago Bears - Another back-up in the NFL thrust into a starting role. The only difference is, I never thought he was anything but a back-up. But, again, as far as back-ups go, he's really not that terrible. He's an experienced player at least. You just wish he'd cut down on the interceptions, since there's nothing more devastating than bringing in a back-up and having him throw INTs. Granted he threw the ball 45 times or more in three games this season, which makes absolutely no sense for a player like Griese on a defensive-oriented team.

26.) Trent Edwards, QB, Buffalo Bills - I'd like to rank Edwards higher, but he's way too young and he's done nothing to deserve it. Still though, I like his toughness and he certainly has the ability to move up on this list. I certainly think he has more talent than J.P. Losman, even if that isn't saying much. He should get the chance to start the season next year as the Bills starter and he'll get his chance to prove his ability. The schedule will be tougher next season and teams will be game planning for you. I'd like to see him succeed.

27.) Tarvaris Jackson, QB, Minnesota Vikings - Honestly, I thought Jackson had about a zero percent chance of starting for the Vikings next year and assumed the Vikings would draft a QB this upcoming draft. Then Jackson showed a little skill over a few weeks and I began to think maybe he did have some promise. Turns out, not surprisingly, that was about 100% because of Chester Taylor and Adrian Peterson. But, hey, those guys will be back next year and if Jackson can play all year like he did in Weeks 12 to 14 he could be a starter in this league. That's a big if though. Right now, I'm leaning toward taking a QB if I'm the Vikings, but it's a tough call.

28.) Joey Harrington, QB, Atlanta Falcons - Another year, another benching for Harrington. He's clearly not an NFL QB. But don't worry, he's a good guy and one hell of a piano player. To be fair, he's not nearly as bad as many would have you believe, but he also has no business starting in the NFL. He had a fairly respectable 61.8 completion percentage and a 7 TD-8 INT ratio is bad, but not Vince Young bad or even Tarvaris Jackson or Trent Dilfer bad. He's also not nearly as bad as David Carr, so at least he has that going for him.

29.) Kyle Boller, QB, Baltimore Ravens - Boller is in a similar situation to Harrington. His career is ostensibly over. If he wants to hang on and be a back-up in the league for a few more years, go for it. He's not a starter. Unless the Ravens, and Ozzie Newsome, are crazier than I think, they should draft a QB next year and start him Week 1. The team is collapsing as it is, they might as well start over at QB too. Just be sure the guy you draft (whether it's Brian Brohm, Andre Woodson or Matt Ryan) is mentally tough because his rookie season will be awful.

30.) Cleo Lemon, QB, Miami Dolphins - You can't say he doesn't try hard. Of course, you also can't say he's very good. For the record, I think John Beck is pretty awful too. Bill Parcells has his hands full. If I'm the Dolphins I trade the No. 1 pick and try to get as much for it as possible. I don't think you necessarily draft one of the Big Three in the draft next year, because it will do nothing but crush his spirit to be on this team. There's no question the QB is the most important position, but it's also the most volatile. Bringing a young QB into a halfway decent team is always better than bringing one into an awful team. Even if that seems obvious, it rarely gets done.

So there's your NFL QB rankings. It's a pretty motley crew after you get past the top 13. At least we have two of the greatest of all-time to watch at No. 1 and No. 2.