Common sense would seem to dictate that pitchers who are paid the most would perform the best. This is, of course, not true. Due to free agency, most pitchers who perform the best are actually paid less than those who perform worse. Though, obviously, those higher paid pitchers must've pitched well at some point (unless your name is Chan Ho Park). The general theory is that even though pitchers who haven't yet hit arbitration or free agency may pitch better, they will get their payday when arbitration and eventually free agency do come around even if their betters years may be behind them (i.e., Gil Meche).
It's a strange system.
So why compare performance vs. salary in baseball? Well, because it illustrates one very important thing related to the information above. It doesn't pay to sign veterans. There's been a trend in baseball over the last few years (maybe longer) to emphasize the importance of developing your own starting pitchers. The theory is as I mentioned above - you pay a lot more and often a pitcher's best years are behind him. This is why teams like the Yankees and Rays have been so cautious with pitchers like Joba Chamberlain and David Price respectively. And regardless of whether you agree with how those players are being handled, the reason why they are being handled like fine china is unquestionably true. Just look at these numbers:
Top Ten Pitchers by 2009 Yearly Salary
1.) Johan Santana (New York Mets) - $18,876,139
2.) Carlos Zambrano (Chicago Cubs) - $18,750,000
3.) Barry Zito (San Francisco Giants) - $18,500,000
4.) A.J. Burnett (New York Yankees) - $16,500,000
5.) C.C. Sabathia (New York Yankees) - $15,285,714
6.) Jason Schmidt (Los Angeles Dodgers) - $15,217,401
7.) Derek Lowe (Atlanta Braves) - $15,000,000
8.) Roy Halladay (Toronto Blue Jays) - $14,250,000
9.) Roy Oswalt (Houston Astros) - $14,000,000
9t.) Mark Buehrle (Chicago White Sox) - $14,000,000
1.) Johan Santana (age 30) – 13-9, 3.13 ERA, 166.2 IP, 146-46 K-BB, 1.21 WHIP
2.) Carlos Zambrano (age 28) – 8-6, 3.77 ERA, 143.1 IP, 123-66 K-BB, 1.41 WHIP
3.) Barry Zito (age 31) – 9-12, 3.99 ERA, 171.1 IP, 132-70 K-BB, 1.34 WHIP
4.) A.J. Burnett (age 32) – 11-8, 4.19 ERA, 176 IP, 163-85 K-BB, 1.40 WHIP
5.) C.C. Sabathia (age 29) – 16-7, 3.40 ERA, 206.1 IP, 177-54 K-BB, 1.13 WHIP
6.) Jason Schmidt (age 36) – 2-2, 5.60 ERA, 17.2 IP, 8-12 K-BB, 1.59 WHIP
7.) Derek Lowe (age 36) – 14-9, 4.47 ERA, 177 IP, 97-54 K-BB, 1.47 WHIP
8.) Roy Halladay (age 32) – 14-9, 3.03 ERA, 208 IP, 183-29 K-BB, 1.12 WHIP
9.) Roy Oswalt (age 32) – 8-6, 4.03 ERA, 176.1 IP, 135-42 K-BB, 1.24 WHIP
9t.). Mark Buehrle (age 30) – 12-7, 3.77 ERA, 191 IP, 95-38 K-BB, 1.24 WHIP
Average – 3.94 ERA, 1.32 WHIP
Total Salary - $160,379,254 Average Salary - $16,037,925.40
Top Ten Pitchers by 2009 Performance (based on Yahoo! Fantasy Rankings)
1.) Tim Lincecum – 13-5, 2.34 ERA, 200.1 IP, 233-55 K-BB, 1.02 WHIP
2.) Zack Greinke – 13-8, 2.19 ERA, 205.1 IP, 216-42 K-BB, 1.07 WHIP
3.) Dan Haren – 13-8, 2.82 ERA, 201.1 IP, 197-31 K-BB, 0.95 WHIP
4.) Chris Carpenter – 16-3, 2.16 ERA, 166.2 IP, 129-30 K-BB, 0.97 WHIP
5.) Javier Vazquez – 12-9, 3.06 ERA, 188.1 IP, 208-40 K-BB, 1.06 WHIP
6.) Adam Wainwright – 18-7, 2.59 ERA, 205 IP, 175-60 K-BB, 1.21 WHIP
7.) Felix Hernandez – 14-5, 2.61 ERA, 200.1 IP, 188-62 K-BB, 1.16 WHIP
8.) Justin Verlander – 16-8, 3.24 ERA, 203 IP, 230-57 K-BB, 1.16 WHIP
9.) Roy Halladay – 14-9, 3.03 ERA, 208 IP, 183-29 K-BB, 1.12 WHIP
10.) Josh Johnson – 14-4, 3.06 ERA, 188.1 IP, 166-51 K-BB, 1.11 WHIP
1.) Tim Lincecum (age 25) - $650,000
2.) Zack Greinke (age 25) - $3,750,000
3.) Dan Haren (age 28) - $7,500,000
4.) Chris Carpenter (age 34) - $13,302,583
5.) Javier Vazquez (age 33) - $11,500,000
6.) Adam Wainwright (age 28) - $2,787,500
7.) Felix Hernandez (age 23) - $3,800,000
8.) Justin Verlander (age 26) - $3,675,000
9.) Roy Halladay (age 32) - $14,250,000
10.) Josh Johnson (age 25) - $1,400,000
Average – 2.71 ERA, 1.08 WHIP
Total Salary - $62,615,083 Average Salary - $6,261,508.30
You'll notice that only one player makes both lists - Roy Halladay. You'll also notice that the average age on the second list is 27.9 years old, while the highest paid players' average age is 31.6. And by the way, the oldest man on the best performers list, Chris Carpenter, missed essentially all of the last two seasons due to injury. I will note, however, that the highest paid players list only has a couple real albatrosses on it - Barry Zito and Jason Schmidt. Last year's list was actually much worse with both Tim Hudson's and Mike Hampton's contracts also in the top 10. Only one player crossed over in last year's lists as well - Johan Santana. And frankly, if Santana hadn't gotten injured he'd probably have done the same again.
Sunday, September 13, 2009
Friday, September 11, 2009
Making the Move to Triple-A (aka the NL)
Anyone following this season in baseball, especially the Red Sox, has seen the remarkable difference in pitching in the National League as opposed to the American League. Everyone has taken note of John Smoltz moving from the Red Sox to the Cardinals and then Brad Penny doing the same weeks later (to the Giants).
I don't really want to get into the reasons why pitchers pitch much better in the NL. We all know about the designated hitter and the disparity between payrolls (specifically the 1st, 3rd, 4th, 5th and 6th-highest payrolls in baseball in the AL in 2008) and any number of other theories. But the real question is - is it true? Is there really a wide disparity between NL earned run averages and AL earned run averages? Most people have theorized the number is about .75 runs fewer in the NL than it is in the AL. No one ever quotes a specific study to support this though and I'm guessing it's just one of many theories in MLB that go assumed and unchecked.
So what if we checked every pitcher in baseball over the past five years that has switched leagues. What would the numbers show? I compared both pitchers who transitioned during the season (by trade or release) and those that signed or were traded in the offseason. First I looked at their season in the AL and then their season in the NL. For pitchers who transitioned midseason (say John Smoltz this year) I compared their statistics during the one season before and after switching teams. For those that transitioned in the offseason, I compared them from one season to the next. I thought it was most important to look at their years back-to-back because that is when they were pitching most similarly. Obviously there are a thousand different factors that could mess with the numbers - everything from injuries to changed pitching coaches to heartbreak caused by losing your trophy wife. You'll just have to excuse those issues because they are impossible to account for. I also looked solely at starting pitchers, though I imagine relief pitchers would follow a similar trajectory.
It turns out the theories are fairly accurate, though they actually low-ball the number by a bit. Over the past five years, the average is actually -0.92 earned runs average when a pitcher transitions from the American League to the National League. There is, in fact, only one season in which the numbers actually went up (2007). That number is largely skewed by Mike Maroth who went from Detroit to St. Louis in midseason and went from a 5.06 ERA to a 10.66 ERA. Why they pitched Maroth 38 innings with a 10.66 ERA and 2.32 WHIP I have no idea, though seven appearances came in relief. And even with that number factored in the overall ERA for the five starters who transitioned during the 2007 calendar year the AL ERA was 4.35 in 600.2 IP and the NL ERA was 4.39 in 606.1 IP - just a miniscule (and statistically insignificant) difference of .04.
The most stark difference came last year when the ERA for the six pitchers in the AL was 4.20 in 891 IP and then plummeted to 2.93 in the NL - a difference of 1.27. Those numbers can largely be attributed to three pitchers - C.C. Sabathia going to Milwaukee (1.65 ERA), Rich Harden going to Chicago (1.77 ERA), and Johan Santana joining the Mets before the season (2.53 ERA). But even pitchers like Odalis Perez and Joe Blanton saw significant declines once they joined the NL.
You can take a look at the entire statistical analysis. I didn't want to post it, because it's so dry (it's a list of names and their statistics). And while it's not necessarily surprising, it is quite interesting to read (if you're crazy like me).
I don't really want to get into the reasons why pitchers pitch much better in the NL. We all know about the designated hitter and the disparity between payrolls (specifically the 1st, 3rd, 4th, 5th and 6th-highest payrolls in baseball in the AL in 2008) and any number of other theories. But the real question is - is it true? Is there really a wide disparity between NL earned run averages and AL earned run averages? Most people have theorized the number is about .75 runs fewer in the NL than it is in the AL. No one ever quotes a specific study to support this though and I'm guessing it's just one of many theories in MLB that go assumed and unchecked.
So what if we checked every pitcher in baseball over the past five years that has switched leagues. What would the numbers show? I compared both pitchers who transitioned during the season (by trade or release) and those that signed or were traded in the offseason. First I looked at their season in the AL and then their season in the NL. For pitchers who transitioned midseason (say John Smoltz this year) I compared their statistics during the one season before and after switching teams. For those that transitioned in the offseason, I compared them from one season to the next. I thought it was most important to look at their years back-to-back because that is when they were pitching most similarly. Obviously there are a thousand different factors that could mess with the numbers - everything from injuries to changed pitching coaches to heartbreak caused by losing your trophy wife. You'll just have to excuse those issues because they are impossible to account for. I also looked solely at starting pitchers, though I imagine relief pitchers would follow a similar trajectory.
It turns out the theories are fairly accurate, though they actually low-ball the number by a bit. Over the past five years, the average is actually -0.92 earned runs average when a pitcher transitions from the American League to the National League. There is, in fact, only one season in which the numbers actually went up (2007). That number is largely skewed by Mike Maroth who went from Detroit to St. Louis in midseason and went from a 5.06 ERA to a 10.66 ERA. Why they pitched Maroth 38 innings with a 10.66 ERA and 2.32 WHIP I have no idea, though seven appearances came in relief. And even with that number factored in the overall ERA for the five starters who transitioned during the 2007 calendar year the AL ERA was 4.35 in 600.2 IP and the NL ERA was 4.39 in 606.1 IP - just a miniscule (and statistically insignificant) difference of .04.
The most stark difference came last year when the ERA for the six pitchers in the AL was 4.20 in 891 IP and then plummeted to 2.93 in the NL - a difference of 1.27. Those numbers can largely be attributed to three pitchers - C.C. Sabathia going to Milwaukee (1.65 ERA), Rich Harden going to Chicago (1.77 ERA), and Johan Santana joining the Mets before the season (2.53 ERA). But even pitchers like Odalis Perez and Joe Blanton saw significant declines once they joined the NL.
You can take a look at the entire statistical analysis. I didn't want to post it, because it's so dry (it's a list of names and their statistics). And while it's not necessarily surprising, it is quite interesting to read (if you're crazy like me).
Hitting the Restart Button
Okay, so if you hadn't noticed I haven't made a post in the last year. I've, uh, been busy. But I'm relaunching the blog because I've been feeling a real jonesing to write some sports-related articles/columns. (Frankly, I've been writing a LOT of fictional work for the past year.)
But now, I'm back. I'm sure you're quite glad. And my first post, which I'll make in just a moment, will be another in-depth study. This time I'll stick to the reality (as opposed to the fantasy I wrote in my Duncan Celtics epic). It will be a fairly in-depth study of pitchers moving from the American League to the National League.
Stay tuned.
But now, I'm back. I'm sure you're quite glad. And my first post, which I'll make in just a moment, will be another in-depth study. This time I'll stick to the reality (as opposed to the fantasy I wrote in my Duncan Celtics epic). It will be a fairly in-depth study of pitchers moving from the American League to the National League.
Stay tuned.
Thursday, April 10, 2008
In Depth WNBA Draft Analysis
No, seriously. I'm not joking about that headline.
The 2008 WNBA Draft was yesterday and I watched every minute of it. (By the way, the fact that ESPN2 switched off the second and third rounds to show basketball bloopers is a sad, sad commentary. Granted you are talking 0.1 ratings, but the WNBA Draft is more interesting than a repeat blooper reel.) There were no surprises at the top, but it's time to break this down much more in depth, team-by-team.
Los Angeles Sparks - Candace Parker (R1, P1), Shannon Bobbitt (R2, P15), Sharnee Zoll (R3, P29)
There's really no question the first pick of the draft should've been Candace Parker. Anyone who says otherwise, clearly doesn't understand the current state of the league. Personally, I think Sylvia Fowles will have a great career in the WNBA. I think she will actually have just as big an on-court impact as Parker - it's impossible to overstate the necessity of a true center in basketball. But Parker is the one who will sell tickets and merchandise. Oh, and she'll be very good as a player too. She is, obviously, a very difficult match-up for any power forward. The Tim Duncan-David Robinson comparison with Lisa Leslie and Parker is a very accurate one.
Moving on from Parker, I think the draft is weak at best. Shannon Bobbitt is no better than a back-up in the WNBA. And I think Marta Fernandez, a rookie last year, can be an All-Star in the league. She has a ton of talent and is just 26, with international experience and great physical tools. Bobbitt is fast, yes, but she has almost the exact same skill set as Temeka Johnson, who's already on the roster. Fernandez and Johnson provide a nice tandem at point guard. And Sherill Baker isn't bad either. What the Sparks really needed was a true shooting guard or small forward. Maybe they want to play Fernandez as more of a two guard, but frankly I think she'd be better as a point. She has great court vision and good handle. At the top of the second round, there were still plenty of talented players - specifically, talented scorers - that the Sparks needed much more than an undersized point. Quianna Chaney, Allie Quigley and Chioma Nnamaka would've all been better picks. Sharnee Zoll is a nice third-round pick, though she's also a point guard.
Overall Grade: B+
The grade is almost exclusively about Parker. She makes any draft automatically a B+. And since Michael Cooper didn't do anything more than that, that's the grade they get. Apparently the Sparks really think they need a point guard. I think Fernandez can play point, but I guess Cooper doesn't. It looks like he wants to play more up-tempo, but even though Parker is a great athlete, Leslie is getting old. They should play like the San Antonio Spurs, not the showtime Lakers. You have the best frontcourt in the history of the WNBA, take advantage of that. Leslie is not going to be able to run up and down the court. But I assure you, no team in the WNBA will be able to guard both her and Parker in the halfcourt.
Chicago Sky - Sylvia Fowles (R1, P2), Quianna Chaney (R2, P19), Angela Tisdale (R3, P33)
Just like Parker was the obvious pick at No. 1, Fowles was the obvious choice at No. 2. As I mentioned in the Sparks write-up, I think Fowles will have a very good career. I know Phoenix won last season with a more up-tempo pace (though Tangela Smith was underrated), but a true center is still an amazing asset in basketball. Fowles is probably the third best true center in the WNBA, as a rookie. Lauren Jackson is No. 1 and Leslie is No. 2, but there is a huge opening after that. When Margo Dydek is (or was in 2007) a starting center on one of the best teams in the East, there is definitely a massive hole in the starting center area in the league. I never understood why LSU didn't give her the ball a lot more, because she has great hands and great athleticism and can catch just about any pass into the post. With Candice Dupree taking away the double teams, she should be even better. People talk about this a ton in men's college basketball when a player is transitioning to the NBA, but it is even more relevent in the WNBA. If you watched every team in the Final Four this year, they all had a star player and only one star player. With Tennessee and LSU, teams didn't just double team Parker or Fowles, they tripled them. In the WNBA, these stars will see completey different defenses and be able to thrive much more.
Quianna Chaney was a nice second round pick and she already has plenty of chemistry with Fowles. They were college roommates. Chaney probably had better talent than she showed at LSU. She has great athleticism and shot 39 percent from 3-point range, which is a rare combination. She's going to have to play the two guard in the WNBA, and work on creating her shot more, but if she can do that she can be a starter in the league. The Sky have Armintie Price at the shooting guard position, even though she is only 5-foot-9. She's really not a point guard, though she should probably play it at the next level. The third round selection of Angela Tisdale gives them a true point guard. Their point guard, Dominique Canty, is a very good passer, but an awful scorer.
Overall Grade: A-
Again, just like the Parker selection, the Fowles selection automatically gives the Sky a B+ in their grade. I do like the addition of Chaney and Tisdale is someone who has some promise. The Sky is a team that needs a lot of help - much moreso than the Sparks - so they won't be very good this year. I'm not a big fan of Armintie Price at the pro level, but Dupree and Fowles give the Sky a very nice basis for the future.
Minnesota Lynx - Candice Wiggins (R1, P3), Nicky Anosike (R2, P16), Charde Houston (R3, P30)
The third spot in the draft was the most coveted for other teams, because the Lynx needed post players and were in a position where Candice Wiggins was the obvious pick. They didn't trade out though and they drafted Wiggins and appear to be keeping her. I love watching Wiggins play, though I do worry some how her game will transfer to the next level. She'll have to play the two guard, which I do think she can do, and she'll have to work on creating her own shot, which again I think she can do. But that does mean she'll have two big things to work on and that can be worrisome for a No. 3 overall pick. She's a tremendous scorer and hardworker though, so I think she'll turn into a smart pick even if she fills a very similar role as Anna DeForge.
As for the second and third rounds, the Lynx may have been the best in the draft. Anosike will be a tremendous player for the Lynx. You can sum up her impact in three words - consistent physical presence. Every team can benefit from a consistent physical presence and Anosike will provide that. I don't think she'll be a star in the league by any means, but she will have a long career and give the team toughness in the post. She'll give you 10 points and 10 rebounds consistently and that's certainly not a bad thing. Charde Houston has, by far, the most upside of any player in the third round. I saw every game she played in college and she was as painfully inconsistent as every analyst says, but she has a lot of talent. She will be a bench player in the pros and that's a good role for her. She has the athleticism to play small forward too, so don't worry about her being an undersized four in the WNBA.
Overall Grade: A
The Lynx could've easily blown this draft. They needed a lot of talent, because their team is legitimately awful. They have Seimone Augustus to build around and they did that with this draft. Yes, they still need a star in the paint because at times Augustus and Wiggins aren't going to be knocking down shots. And no, I don't think Anosike will fill that. But outside of Parker and Fowles I don't think any player in this draft would've filled it. Erlana Larkins, LaToya Pringle and Laura Harper are all accessory pieces in the WNBA anyway. According to the Hartford Courant, the Connecticut Sun offered their two first round picks (No. 9 and No. 12) this year and their first round pick next year for the third pick (with which they'd have selected Wiggins). That seems like a lot, but frankly there was no post depth in this draft. There was a lot of mediocre post depth, but the Lynx got Anosike in the second round, who is about the same as Larkins or Pringle. And Wiggins has the opportunity to be a superior talent. You can't trade superior talent for multiple average talents in the WNBA (or any basketball league). You only have five starters and those five starters will determine the outcome of 95 percent of your team's games, not depth. The Lynx are building for next year anyway, when they can draft a post player and have a starting five of Lindsey Harding, Wiggins, DeForge, Augustus and hopefully a very athletic center so you can play a very uptempo style.
Detroit Shock - Alexis Hornbuckle (R1, P4), Tasha Humphrey (R1, P11), Olayinka Sanni (R2, P18), Natasha Lacy (R2, P28), Valeriya Berezhynska (R3, P42)
The Shock had a ton of picks in this draft thanks to a pair of trades with Atlanta and San Antonio. Detroit is also in the enviable position of already being a very good team, so nothing they added in this draft was anything more than a bonus. Katie Smith, Deanna Nolan, Cheryl Ford and Kara Braxton are obviously a great foundation already. They lost some players in the offseason (Katie Feenstra, Swin Cash, Ivory Latta) and addressed those losses very well this draft. I don't think Alexis Hornbuckle is a great player by any stretch of the imagination, but she's not bad either. I wonder what role she'll fill in the WNBA is the only question. She's a combo guard. I'd make her into a point guard and have her backup Smith. Tasha Humphrey is a great addition to the roster, with their late first round pick. She should step right into the position Cash held in a couple years. She won't need to be a star this year, so she should be able to learn to play power forward in the pros. She's also the perfect physical player for Bill Laimbeer.
Olayinka Sanni is a very athletic post player who should give the team nice interior depth, with the loss of the plodding Feenstra. She's not the defensive player Feenstra is, but she's better offensively. Lacy and Berezhynska are picks that offer depth. Berezhynska has nice size and Lacy has some point potential, but both came from small colleges (Rice and UTEP respectively), so they are players worth drafting if they turn out good and easy to cut if not.
Overall Grade: B+
The Shock didn't need much in the draft, so anything they got with their bounty of picks was just bonus. I like the pick of Humphrey more than I like Hornbuckle. I think they reached with Hornbuckle and would've been better served to draft Matee Ajavon, and have her as more of a true backup point guard. The additions of Sanni and Berezhynska provide depth inside.
Houston Comets - Matee Ajavon (R1, P5), Erica White (R2, P17), Crystal Kelly (R3, P31)
The run on guards continued as the Comets selected Matee Ajavon at No. 5. Ajavon was a pretty good player at Rutgers, but I think she may actually be a better pro than she was a college player. You don't hear that a lot in women's basketball, but Ajavon was limited by the offense she played for C. Vivian Stringer. Rutgers slowed the tempo and relied on their physical defense to defeat opponents. Ajavon is a superior athlete and in an uptempo offense she can be a star. Ajavon should step right in and start at point guard for the Comets. The Comets are probably the worst team in the WNBA and they could have an unbelievably bad season. They were 13-21 last year and this year they won't have Sheryl Swoopes. Tina Thompson is still very talented, but she's 33 years old. You have to imagine she's close to retirement, so the future for the Comets isn't much better than the present. No one on this team has star potential down the road.
I almost wonder whether it would be advantageous to start Erica White, their second round pick, at point guard and play Ajavon at the two guard. I like White as a player, but it's an odd selection. What the team really needed in the second round was a shooting guard. Where is this team going to get scoring outside of Thompson? Tamecka Dixon - one of three 11-year veterans on the team? Dixon isn't much of a point guard, let alone a two guard. Ajavon isn't much of a shooter, but she can score if you let her play aggressively. Their third round pick, Crystal Kelly, is a player with a ton of upside, but questions as well. She was a dominant force at Western Kentucky, posting 22.6 points and 10.5 rebounds per game as a senior. How that will transfer to the WNBA is questionable, but she's a nice pick in the third round based on potential.
Overall Grade: C
The team needed a point guard, so they did get that. Unfortunately, they got two of them and basically nothing else. Houston is going to be an awful team. They have no scoring and they are getting very old. I like Erica White, I really do, but you have to have confidence in your first and second round picks (third round picks are for potential). If they believe Ajavon will be a starting point guard, draft her with your fifth pick and draft a shooting guard/small forward in the second round. If you don't have a lot of confidence in Ajavon at point, draft a shooting guard/small forward in the first round and take White in the second. When you're the Shock and you're already a playoff team you can draft the best talent available. When you're the Comets, you need to draft for need. It looks like they had no plan at all, which means they ended up with some talent, but not a good team.
Washington Mystics - Crystal Langhorne (R1, P6), Lindsey Pluimer (R2, P20), Krystal Vaughn (R3, P34)
The Mystics have a pretty solid core with Alana Beard, DeLisha Milton-Jones, Monique Curry and Nakia Sanford, so they could stand to draft Crystal Langhorne, who played locally at Maryland. They don't have any glaring positional needs, so you might as well take who you think is the best available. And Milton-Jones (33 years old), while still very talented, isn't getting any younger. Langhorne has been criticized for being undersized, but she has a wide array of post moves and won't be counted on for a large amount of scoring right out of the shoot anyway. A wing scorer wouldn't have been a bad pick (Tamera Young, Amber Holt), but neither of them are locks to be stars in the WNBA. Langhorne is a safe pick. She may not be a star, but she'll certainly be a contributor for a long time.
Lindsey Pluimer is a 6-foot-4 forward, with a European-type game. She can step out and shoot the 3, in addition to score inside. I'm not sure she'll really develop into much of a talent, but she has size and is a very good shooter. Krystal Vaughn didn't play much until her junior year, but she's a good athlete.
Overall Grade: C+
The Mystics didn't need much from this draft, but they also didn't get much from it. Langhorne has a lot of talent, but the second and third round picks are based more on potential than anything else. It's not a bad thing to add a local college star from a championship team who will probably average 14 and 7 with regular playing time. It's just not a splashy pick.
New York Liberty - Essence Carson (R1, P7), Erlana Larkins (R1, P14), Wanisha Smith (R2, P27), Alberta Auguste (R3, P35)
Thanks to some wheeling and dealing last year, the Liberty ended up with two first round picks this draft. That was definitely a good idea, considering the depth of the draft, and will continue to be a sound strategy for any team in the future. To be blatantly honest, the overall talent level coming into the WNBA improves almost every draft. As more girls play, and as more college parity exists, the drafts will get better. That's really not any groundbreaking statement, but teams need to realize that draft picks will become more important. That's a tangent, but teams should really try to stockpile draft picks whenever possible. The Liberty went local just like Washington in picking Rutgers guard Essence Carson with the seventh overall pick. I saw Carson play a lot in college and she's a legitimate perimeter defender - something very rare in basketball. She has some offensive game, but really needs to put it together consistently. Just like Matee Ajavon, Carson may flourish in a pro-style offense. She certainly has the athleticism to do so and she did shoot 42 percent this past year, largely on mid-range jumpers, even if she only averaged 10.8 points per game. She may only average about the same in the WNBA, but the Liberty now have two of the best perimeter defenders in the league, with her and Ashley Battle. With the number of talented wing players coming into the league every year (and already in the league), that is going to grow in importance. If Carson can develop into a Bruce Bowen type, that'd be great. With their second first round pick, the Liberty selected Erlana Larkins from North Carolina. Larkins really dropped in this draft. She was predicted as the third or fourth pick in the draft as little as a month or two ago, but she ended up dropping to 14. I'm not sure Larkins is really going to be that good in the WNBA - she's undersized and not very athletic - but at the end of the first round, it was worth the pick. When you already had a first round pick and you have a chance to grab a player whose value is dropping, it's always worth it. I don't think she'll be a scorer in the pros, but she can at least rebound and she's a good passer for a post.
Wanisha Smith and Alberta Auguste are both winning college players (from Duke and Tennessee respectively), which is something that's never bad to have. They are both very similar players, though. They obviously had talent, but never really developed it. Smith never played up to her potential at Duke, after making the Freshman All-ACC team. Auguste was maybe the best junior college player in the country in 2006, but she was only a minor piece on Tennessee's last two championship teams. At times, watching her I would think "Wow, she's got a lot of talent for scoring." And at other times, she would just disappear entirely.
Overall Grade: B-
New York did pretty well with their first two picks, but Smith and Auguste are probably wasted picks. The Liberty was set at point guard with Loree Moore, maybe the best young point guard in the league along with Lindsay Whalen, and both Janel McCarville and Cathrine Kraayeveld developed as respectable post players last season. The only question about the draft is whether they got scoring. Shameka Christon was their leading scorer last year and she averaged just 11.2 points per game. Tamera Young and Amber Holt, the next two picks, would've been better scorers than Carson. I'm not sure Carson can't be a pretty good scorer in the league though. Smith and Auguste are both possible scorers, but only if they take a major step forward. Larkins, a post player, wasn't a necessity, but considering how far she dropped it wasn't a bad selection.
Atlanta Dream - Tamera Young (R1, P8), Morenike Atunrase (R2, P24), Danielle Hood (R3, P32); traded Atunrase and veteran Ann Wauters for Camille Little and Chioma Nnamaka (R2, P21)
The expansion Dream's first draft is certainly off the board, name wise. They went the undervalued, underrated route for sure. Tamera Young, their first pick, was certainly a very good player at James Madison, but with any mid-major player you have to look at what she did against top competition. This year against ranked competition, Young was 12-of-26 for 28 points against Maryland, 8-of-21 for 20 points against George Washington and 6-of-17 for 14 points and 8-of-19 for 17 points in two games against Old Dominion. That's a fairly small body of evidence to measure her against, but shooting 41 percent against those three teams isn't awful. She has legit size, at 6-foot-2, so she's certainly an intriguing prospect at the next level. You do worry about the fact that she isn't a good shooter though. She was bad from 3-point range in her career (142-of-478, 29.7 percent) and she's barely an average free throw shooter (67.1 percent for her career), so it's natural to assume much of her scoring came close to the basket. Not having seen her play, I can't say how good she'll be in the WNBA, but the team certainly needs a wing scorer.
Chioma Nnamaka, who they traded for in the second round, and Danielle Hood, their third round pick, both fill the same wing scorer role. Nnamaka is almost solely a 3-point shooter, but she's very good at it. Last year, 61 percent of her field goal attempts came from behind the arc and she shot 39 percent. She'll be a nice player to bring off the bench and stretch the defense, so they can go to their strength, which will be their inside presence with Erika DeSouza, Katie Feenstra and Camille Little, who they traded for on draft day. I saw Hood play quite a bit in college and she has the ability to be a contributor as well. She's very reminiscent of Charde Houston, both in size and skill.
Overall Grade: B
It's hard to know how to grade the Dream on their first draft. If Tamera Young develops into the player they hope - a consistent 15 to 17 point scorer - the grade deserves to be bumped up a little. If she doesn't develop at the next level, then the grade deserves to go down into the C range. Either way, I like that the Dream didn't stand pat on draft day and made a trade to acquire Camille Little, who should contribute immediately. Nnamaka and Hood are at the very least intriguing picks with some pro potential. Also, Atlanta did a good job of acquiring positional needs, unlike Houston.
Connecticut Sun - Amber Holt (R1, P9), Ketia Swanier (R1, P12), Jolene Anderson (R2, P23), Lauren Ervin (R3, P37)
Connecticut was left with a devastated roster due to injuries, defections and pregnancies, so they had a lot of work to do. With Nykesha Sales sitting out the season due to injury and Katie Douglas requesting a trade to Indiana, the Sun was desperately in need of some scoring. The selection of Amber Holt was made for that reason. Holt, out of Middle Tennessee State, is another mid-major player. She scored an absurd amount of points (27.3 ppg as a senior) and she did score against top level competition. She had 16 points against Maryland, 28 points against Tennessee and 41 points against LSU (with no Sylvia Fowles). She's not very big (6-foot) and not a good 3-point shooter (29.3 percent for her career) which are definite red flags, but coach Mike Thibault has always been a good talent evaluater so I guess you have to trust him. I have my doubts and they badly need Holt this year, not down the road. Ketia Swanier, the Sun's second first round pick, fills the need for a backup point guard while Erin Phillips is in Australia with the national team. I saw every game Swanier played in college (and covered the team her freshman year) and she definitely improved her junior and senior years, but the Sun probably reached for her a little. She won't be a starter in the league and while I realize she won't need to be one (with Lindsay Whalen being a very talented point), it would be nice to get a starter with a first round pick. You also figure in the fact that Phillips - a player that looked very talented in 2006 - will be back eventually and the Swanier pick was probably a reach. You probably could've gotten by with Jamie Carey playing the sole backup.
The second round pick of Jolene Anderson is pretty underwhelming. Anderson was a good scorer in the Big Ten, for Wisconsin, but is just 5-foot-8 and not particularly good at any one thing. She was an average 3-point shooter (32 percent for her career) and an okay shooter for a guard (42 percent for her career). She was a good rebounder for a guard, but I doubt that will translate to the next level. She's scrappy and physical, but she's not a very exciting pick. Lauren Ervin tore her ACL this season and will not play in 2008. She is a very good talent though and a nice pick for the third round. Thibault is big on drafting players (both foreign and domestic) for down the road. It's worked some and it's not worked some, but it is definitely worth the risk. Ervin is 6-foot-3 and both a good scorer and rebounder. She definitely has the potential to be a very good player in the WNBA if she bounces back from injury.
Overall Grade: C+
Like with Atlanta, and their selection of Tamera Young, this grade depends on how good Amber Holt is. Since I really have no idea if she'll be any good, I can't properly assess the draft. If I was going to guess, I'd say Holt won't be a big time player in the league. If she is, it'll probably take a couple years. There's no question Mike Thibault coveted Candice Wiggins in this draft and tried to do all he could to trade up for her. The Lynx wouldn't budge, however, and it left the Sun in a tough position from a standpoint of need. They need an instant scorer on the next level, but none was available at pick No. 9. They went with the closest thing to it in Holt and are going to need to hope for the best. The pick of Ketia Swanier fills a short term hole, but I'm not sure about the long term benefits of it. It would surprise me tremendously if Jolene Anderson contributed and Lauren Ervin is a pick for next year. It would not surprise me at all to see the Sun struggle at times this season.
Sacramento Monarchs - Laura Harper (R1, P10), A'Quonesia Franklin (R3, P38), Izabela Piekarska (R3, P40), Charel Allen (R3, P43)
The Monarchs didn't have any picks in the second round this year, so their first round pick was especially important. With that pick they took Laura Harper, from Maryland. Harper is a solid player and I think she will have a successful, but unremarkable career. Don't get me wrong, though, there's nothing wrong with that. She's good at a lot of things, but not especially great at anything. She'll probably be the same in the pros. She averaged 14.1 points, 8.5 rebounds and 1.3 blocks per game last year. The far-and-away biggest need for the Monarchs was to get some size and Harper certainly addresses that. The loss of Yolanda Griffith to free agency was a big loss for the team in the post and Harper is actually a very similar player. If they can get nine points and five rebounds per game - what Griffith gave them last year - out of Harper, that would be all they need.
Sacramento did have three third round picks, and they used them to draft for a lot of potential. A'Quonesia Franklin was completely blown out of proportion in college. Texas A&M had a great season, and Franklin was their marquee name, but she's really not a very good player. She doesn't shoot the ball well (35 percent for her career, 31 percent from 3-point range), she's undersized (5-foot-3) and she wasn't even 2-to-1 in assist-to-turnover ratio last year. When you compare her to Kimberly Beck, who went just two picks prior, it's not even close. Beck is a much better player in every respect. And for the record, with Kara Lawson and Ticha Penicheiro the Monarchs didn't need a point guard. Izabela Piekarska is a nice pick for interior depth. She's 6-foot-5, though she does have (maybe obviously) more of a European game. She can step outside and shoot the 3-pointer pretty well. She is, however, now the tallest player on Sacramento's roster. Charel Allen, the very last pick in the draft, is maybe my favorite selection of the entire draft. I saw Allen play fairly often at Notre Dame and she is a very skilled player. Yes, she's undersized (5-foot-11) and she needs to add some muscle, but she has the ability to create her own shot. She's really a poor man's Candice Wiggins. She's a very good shooter and she's a good rebounder for her size too (5.9 rebounds per game over her final two seasons). She shot 44 percent from the field last year and she took all mid-range jumpers. Allen destroyed Oklahoma in the NCAA tournament this year, scoring 35 points. They just couldn't stop her to save their life.
Overall Grade: B+
The Monarchs started their draft with a good pick and they closed their draft with a good pick. Harper addresses an immediate need and should be a solid contributor for the Monarchs, even in the first season. Harper's not a star in the WNBA, like many of the picks in the first half of the first round could be, but she's a player who will post 13 points and 7 rebounds per game for a long time. Sacramento is already a good team. They have two good forwards in Rebekkah Brunson and Nicole Powell and probably the best point guard tandem in the league with Ticha Penicheiro and Kara Lawson. Harper addresses the center position vacated by Yolanda Griffith and I honestly believe Charel Allen could be the answer at the two guard. Chelsea Newton, who stars there now, is not a big time player. I know Allen has some physical development to take care of, but I don't think there's a doubt in my mind she's the steal of this draft. A team like Connecticut should've taken Allen in the second or third round.
Phoenix Mercury - LaToya Pringle (R1, P13), Leilani Mitchell (R2, P25), Marscilla Packer (R3, P41)
The defending champion Mercury had a pretty quiet draft, but after a 23-11 season and a WNBA title, you don't exactly need to make many improvements. There's no question the Mercury needed to draft a post player in the first round and LaToya Pringle was the choice. The Mercury had a few options - Pringle, Erlana Larkins, Nicky Anosike, Olayinka Sanni - and they made the right choice in selecting Pringle, the most athletic of the bunch. Paul Westhead is gone as coach, but I assume the team will still run an uptempo offense. Larkins would've been decimated running up and down the court and Sanni and Anosike aren't much better runners. Pringle comes from a run-and-gun style at North Carolina and will fit in perfectly in the same system in Phoenix. Tangela Smith is getting older (31 years old) and the team has little to no interior depth. The team played with three guards last year (Cappie Pondexter, Kelly Miller, Diana Taurasi), so the addition of Pringle gives them the ability to play a little bigger with her and Smith, which will be very important this year with the Lauren Jackson-Swin Cash combo in Seattle and of course the Lisa Leslie-Candace Parker combo in Los Angeles.
The Mercury's second round pick, Leilani Mitchell, gives them a younger point guard to backup Kelly Miller. She's only 5-foot-5, but she had great numbers at Utah as a senior - 7.5 assists per game and a 47 percent shooter. Marscilla Packer is a 3-point shooter, who would fit into the system nicely, though she's probably more of a pick just for the hell of it.
Overall Grade: B
The Mercury didn't do much of anything with their second and third round picks (though Leilani Mitchell is a darkhorse pick), but the LaToya Pringle pick was a perfect one in my eyes. There are a lot of stupid picks in the WNBA Draft, where teams can't seem to figure out their positional needs or system needs or seem to just be picking a player for marketing purposes. Pringle is the perfect pick because the Mercury needed a post player and she fits the Phoenix system, straight out of college. Any WNBA personnel person should be hoping to get one good player out of a draft. Mitchell and Marscilla Packer may not be anything of need, but Pringle will almost certainly fit the bill of a good player.
San Antonio Silver Stars - Chioma Nnamaka (R2, P21), Alex Anderson (R3, P39); traded Nnamaka and Camille Little to Atlanta for Ann Wauters and Morenike Atunrase (R2, P24)
The Silver Stars might as well have just ignored the draft. They didn't have a first round pick and they traded their second round pick, and Camille Little, to pick up veteran center Ann Wauters and Morenike Atunrase. That doesn't leave me with much to analyze. Wauters is a veteran, so you know what you are getting there. She's not a great player, but San Antonio is a good team and they added post depth with Wauters. I guess they don't have much confidence in Sandora Irvin. It's not a bad trade for a team that was 20-14 and thinks they can get over the hump if they give Ruth Riley some help inside.
As for their actual picks, Morenike Atunrase is an average player. She doesn't score particularly well and she's undersized to play the two guard. She's a good defender, but it's unlikely that alone will sustain her at the next level. If she was a better shooter or could create her own shot she could get by, but she shoots 37 percent from the field (35 percent from 3) and will have a hard time creating her own shot at the next level with her limited ball-handling skills (more turnovers than assists as a 5-foot-10 guard/forward). I do like her hair though. Alex Anderson, their third round pick, is a mid-major pick. She went to Tennessee-Chattanooga and averaged 18.9 points and 9.4 rebounds per game over her final two seasons. Chattanooga played against Tennessee early this past season and Anderson was awful - 3-of-12 for eight points with six turnovers. Against Kansas St. in the first round of the NCAA tournament, Anderson was 3-of-14 for nine points. Those are not good signs. She won't be keyed on in the pros like she was at Chattanooga, but you still can't have any confidence in her ability at the next level. She's listed as a guard/forward, but she's really a forward. She's 6-foot-1, but she has shown no outside shooting ability.
Overall Grade: D
Again, basically San Antonio ignored the draft this year. Clearly that was the plan, so they probably don't care that they had an awful draft. They did trade for Ann Wauters, but that was basically Wauters for Camille Little, so I can't factor that in to the draft grade. The Silver Stars have Becky Hammon and Sophia Young, so they don't need a lot of help. If they can get some more out of Ruth Riley, the addition of Wauters will make the team better, but they aren't a title contender in my eyes. And I don't see this year's draft providing any help. San Antonio also gave Atlanta their first round pick next year, so this team better win soon and I just don't see any chance in the world of that happening.
Indiana Fever - Khadijah Whittington (R2, P26)
The Fever went the trade route as well, though they did it before the draft. They made the blockbuster trade of the offseason, sending Tamika Whitmore to the Connecticut Sun for all-star Katie Douglas. That left the Fever with a big hole in the paint, but Douglas is a very good player who will definitely improve the team immediately. The real question is how healthy Tamika Catchings will be coming off her Achilles' tendon injury. The team also loses Anna DeForge, who signed with the Lynx.
The Fever drafted Khadijah Whittington with their only pick in the draft, 26th overall. Whittington is actually a player reminiscent of Catchings, though to compare her to Catchings is getting way ahead of ourselves. Whittington has a very versatile game, offensively and defensively, and was a good pick for Indiana. The only negative is that the Fever probably would've benefited from a post player over a wing. With Tully Bevilaqua, K.B. Sharp and Tan White the team has plenty of point guard depth. Catchings is obviously an MVP candidate at shooting guard (really more of a combo guard) and Katie Douglas is a perennial all-star at small forward. Tammy Sutton-Brown is an all-star at center. So the obvious need was at power forward, with Whitmore going to the Sun, but there were no power forwards worth drafting at that point.
Overall Grade: C-
Like the Silver Stars, there's not a lot to grade here. However, for only having one pick and a team that is already a contender for Eastern Conference champions, the Khadijah Whittington pick is a pretty good one. If they want to work Catchings back into the lineup slowly as she recovers from injury, Whittington fits into her spot well. I'm surprised Whittington dropped as far as she did, so in that respect it worked out very well for the Fever, even if post depth was a bigger need.
Seattle Storm - Allie Quigley (R2, P22), Kimberly Beck (R3, P36)
Everyone's hot pick to win the 2008 WNBA title actually had a good draft despite trading away their first round pick. I have a bit of a soft spot for Allie Quigley, who I think is a very good, gritty player. She's one of those intangibles players, though she's also pretty good statistically-speaking. She can create her own shot decently well and she's a good shooter (43 percent for her career). For some reason her 3-point shooting declined as her college career went on, even though she was taking more shots as a freshman. She was 79-of-173 (45.7 percent) her freshman year from 3, but the next three years - even though she was taking fewer 3-pointers - she shot 36 percent every year. If she can pick her average up some, and not even necessarily as good as her freshman year, she would be better off at the next level. The Storm is as stacked as stacked can be, but the one thing they could use is a shooting guard.
I also really like the Storm's third round pick, Kimberly Beck. Beck played at George Washington, so you worry a little about the transition to the pros, but she had great numbers in college. Obviously the Storm have Sue Bird at point guard, so Beck is as far from a need as you can get. Then again, Beck is also a third round pick. She has decent size, at 5-foot-8, and had a 2.6-to-1 assist to turnover ratio as a senior. She's also a 41 percent career shooter, which is pretty good, though she's not a scorer. To nab her as a third round pick, when a player like Angela Tisdale - a point guard with worse numbers in every regard though from a larger program - goes ahead of Beck could turn into a huge steal. At worse, it's a third round pick you can easily lose.
Overall Grade: C+
Considering the Storm had no first round pick and very little in the way of needs, this was a pretty good draft. The Storm have Sue Bird, an all-star point guard, Sheryl Swoopes, a legend even if she's aging, at small forward, Swin Cash, an all-star power forward, and Lauren Jackson, clearly the best player in the league, at center. The Atlanta Dream took both Betty Lennox and Iziane Castro Marques in the expansion draft, so they really needed to get a two guard. Hopefully Allie Quigley will help fill that role. The team also needed help at backup point guard and Kimberly Beck could address that. Tanisha Wright is really their only backup at point and she's hardly anything special, as she turns the ball over way too much.
The 2008 WNBA Draft was yesterday and I watched every minute of it. (By the way, the fact that ESPN2 switched off the second and third rounds to show basketball bloopers is a sad, sad commentary. Granted you are talking 0.1 ratings, but the WNBA Draft is more interesting than a repeat blooper reel.) There were no surprises at the top, but it's time to break this down much more in depth, team-by-team.
Los Angeles Sparks - Candace Parker (R1, P1), Shannon Bobbitt (R2, P15), Sharnee Zoll (R3, P29)
There's really no question the first pick of the draft should've been Candace Parker. Anyone who says otherwise, clearly doesn't understand the current state of the league. Personally, I think Sylvia Fowles will have a great career in the WNBA. I think she will actually have just as big an on-court impact as Parker - it's impossible to overstate the necessity of a true center in basketball. But Parker is the one who will sell tickets and merchandise. Oh, and she'll be very good as a player too. She is, obviously, a very difficult match-up for any power forward. The Tim Duncan-David Robinson comparison with Lisa Leslie and Parker is a very accurate one.
Moving on from Parker, I think the draft is weak at best. Shannon Bobbitt is no better than a back-up in the WNBA. And I think Marta Fernandez, a rookie last year, can be an All-Star in the league. She has a ton of talent and is just 26, with international experience and great physical tools. Bobbitt is fast, yes, but she has almost the exact same skill set as Temeka Johnson, who's already on the roster. Fernandez and Johnson provide a nice tandem at point guard. And Sherill Baker isn't bad either. What the Sparks really needed was a true shooting guard or small forward. Maybe they want to play Fernandez as more of a two guard, but frankly I think she'd be better as a point. She has great court vision and good handle. At the top of the second round, there were still plenty of talented players - specifically, talented scorers - that the Sparks needed much more than an undersized point. Quianna Chaney, Allie Quigley and Chioma Nnamaka would've all been better picks. Sharnee Zoll is a nice third-round pick, though she's also a point guard.
Overall Grade: B+
The grade is almost exclusively about Parker. She makes any draft automatically a B+. And since Michael Cooper didn't do anything more than that, that's the grade they get. Apparently the Sparks really think they need a point guard. I think Fernandez can play point, but I guess Cooper doesn't. It looks like he wants to play more up-tempo, but even though Parker is a great athlete, Leslie is getting old. They should play like the San Antonio Spurs, not the showtime Lakers. You have the best frontcourt in the history of the WNBA, take advantage of that. Leslie is not going to be able to run up and down the court. But I assure you, no team in the WNBA will be able to guard both her and Parker in the halfcourt.
Chicago Sky - Sylvia Fowles (R1, P2), Quianna Chaney (R2, P19), Angela Tisdale (R3, P33)
Just like Parker was the obvious pick at No. 1, Fowles was the obvious choice at No. 2. As I mentioned in the Sparks write-up, I think Fowles will have a very good career. I know Phoenix won last season with a more up-tempo pace (though Tangela Smith was underrated), but a true center is still an amazing asset in basketball. Fowles is probably the third best true center in the WNBA, as a rookie. Lauren Jackson is No. 1 and Leslie is No. 2, but there is a huge opening after that. When Margo Dydek is (or was in 2007) a starting center on one of the best teams in the East, there is definitely a massive hole in the starting center area in the league. I never understood why LSU didn't give her the ball a lot more, because she has great hands and great athleticism and can catch just about any pass into the post. With Candice Dupree taking away the double teams, she should be even better. People talk about this a ton in men's college basketball when a player is transitioning to the NBA, but it is even more relevent in the WNBA. If you watched every team in the Final Four this year, they all had a star player and only one star player. With Tennessee and LSU, teams didn't just double team Parker or Fowles, they tripled them. In the WNBA, these stars will see completey different defenses and be able to thrive much more.
Quianna Chaney was a nice second round pick and she already has plenty of chemistry with Fowles. They were college roommates. Chaney probably had better talent than she showed at LSU. She has great athleticism and shot 39 percent from 3-point range, which is a rare combination. She's going to have to play the two guard in the WNBA, and work on creating her shot more, but if she can do that she can be a starter in the league. The Sky have Armintie Price at the shooting guard position, even though she is only 5-foot-9. She's really not a point guard, though she should probably play it at the next level. The third round selection of Angela Tisdale gives them a true point guard. Their point guard, Dominique Canty, is a very good passer, but an awful scorer.
Overall Grade: A-
Again, just like the Parker selection, the Fowles selection automatically gives the Sky a B+ in their grade. I do like the addition of Chaney and Tisdale is someone who has some promise. The Sky is a team that needs a lot of help - much moreso than the Sparks - so they won't be very good this year. I'm not a big fan of Armintie Price at the pro level, but Dupree and Fowles give the Sky a very nice basis for the future.
Minnesota Lynx - Candice Wiggins (R1, P3), Nicky Anosike (R2, P16), Charde Houston (R3, P30)
The third spot in the draft was the most coveted for other teams, because the Lynx needed post players and were in a position where Candice Wiggins was the obvious pick. They didn't trade out though and they drafted Wiggins and appear to be keeping her. I love watching Wiggins play, though I do worry some how her game will transfer to the next level. She'll have to play the two guard, which I do think she can do, and she'll have to work on creating her own shot, which again I think she can do. But that does mean she'll have two big things to work on and that can be worrisome for a No. 3 overall pick. She's a tremendous scorer and hardworker though, so I think she'll turn into a smart pick even if she fills a very similar role as Anna DeForge.
As for the second and third rounds, the Lynx may have been the best in the draft. Anosike will be a tremendous player for the Lynx. You can sum up her impact in three words - consistent physical presence. Every team can benefit from a consistent physical presence and Anosike will provide that. I don't think she'll be a star in the league by any means, but she will have a long career and give the team toughness in the post. She'll give you 10 points and 10 rebounds consistently and that's certainly not a bad thing. Charde Houston has, by far, the most upside of any player in the third round. I saw every game she played in college and she was as painfully inconsistent as every analyst says, but she has a lot of talent. She will be a bench player in the pros and that's a good role for her. She has the athleticism to play small forward too, so don't worry about her being an undersized four in the WNBA.
Overall Grade: A
The Lynx could've easily blown this draft. They needed a lot of talent, because their team is legitimately awful. They have Seimone Augustus to build around and they did that with this draft. Yes, they still need a star in the paint because at times Augustus and Wiggins aren't going to be knocking down shots. And no, I don't think Anosike will fill that. But outside of Parker and Fowles I don't think any player in this draft would've filled it. Erlana Larkins, LaToya Pringle and Laura Harper are all accessory pieces in the WNBA anyway. According to the Hartford Courant, the Connecticut Sun offered their two first round picks (No. 9 and No. 12) this year and their first round pick next year for the third pick (with which they'd have selected Wiggins). That seems like a lot, but frankly there was no post depth in this draft. There was a lot of mediocre post depth, but the Lynx got Anosike in the second round, who is about the same as Larkins or Pringle. And Wiggins has the opportunity to be a superior talent. You can't trade superior talent for multiple average talents in the WNBA (or any basketball league). You only have five starters and those five starters will determine the outcome of 95 percent of your team's games, not depth. The Lynx are building for next year anyway, when they can draft a post player and have a starting five of Lindsey Harding, Wiggins, DeForge, Augustus and hopefully a very athletic center so you can play a very uptempo style.
Detroit Shock - Alexis Hornbuckle (R1, P4), Tasha Humphrey (R1, P11), Olayinka Sanni (R2, P18), Natasha Lacy (R2, P28), Valeriya Berezhynska (R3, P42)
The Shock had a ton of picks in this draft thanks to a pair of trades with Atlanta and San Antonio. Detroit is also in the enviable position of already being a very good team, so nothing they added in this draft was anything more than a bonus. Katie Smith, Deanna Nolan, Cheryl Ford and Kara Braxton are obviously a great foundation already. They lost some players in the offseason (Katie Feenstra, Swin Cash, Ivory Latta) and addressed those losses very well this draft. I don't think Alexis Hornbuckle is a great player by any stretch of the imagination, but she's not bad either. I wonder what role she'll fill in the WNBA is the only question. She's a combo guard. I'd make her into a point guard and have her backup Smith. Tasha Humphrey is a great addition to the roster, with their late first round pick. She should step right into the position Cash held in a couple years. She won't need to be a star this year, so she should be able to learn to play power forward in the pros. She's also the perfect physical player for Bill Laimbeer.
Olayinka Sanni is a very athletic post player who should give the team nice interior depth, with the loss of the plodding Feenstra. She's not the defensive player Feenstra is, but she's better offensively. Lacy and Berezhynska are picks that offer depth. Berezhynska has nice size and Lacy has some point potential, but both came from small colleges (Rice and UTEP respectively), so they are players worth drafting if they turn out good and easy to cut if not.
Overall Grade: B+
The Shock didn't need much in the draft, so anything they got with their bounty of picks was just bonus. I like the pick of Humphrey more than I like Hornbuckle. I think they reached with Hornbuckle and would've been better served to draft Matee Ajavon, and have her as more of a true backup point guard. The additions of Sanni and Berezhynska provide depth inside.
Houston Comets - Matee Ajavon (R1, P5), Erica White (R2, P17), Crystal Kelly (R3, P31)
The run on guards continued as the Comets selected Matee Ajavon at No. 5. Ajavon was a pretty good player at Rutgers, but I think she may actually be a better pro than she was a college player. You don't hear that a lot in women's basketball, but Ajavon was limited by the offense she played for C. Vivian Stringer. Rutgers slowed the tempo and relied on their physical defense to defeat opponents. Ajavon is a superior athlete and in an uptempo offense she can be a star. Ajavon should step right in and start at point guard for the Comets. The Comets are probably the worst team in the WNBA and they could have an unbelievably bad season. They were 13-21 last year and this year they won't have Sheryl Swoopes. Tina Thompson is still very talented, but she's 33 years old. You have to imagine she's close to retirement, so the future for the Comets isn't much better than the present. No one on this team has star potential down the road.
I almost wonder whether it would be advantageous to start Erica White, their second round pick, at point guard and play Ajavon at the two guard. I like White as a player, but it's an odd selection. What the team really needed in the second round was a shooting guard. Where is this team going to get scoring outside of Thompson? Tamecka Dixon - one of three 11-year veterans on the team? Dixon isn't much of a point guard, let alone a two guard. Ajavon isn't much of a shooter, but she can score if you let her play aggressively. Their third round pick, Crystal Kelly, is a player with a ton of upside, but questions as well. She was a dominant force at Western Kentucky, posting 22.6 points and 10.5 rebounds per game as a senior. How that will transfer to the WNBA is questionable, but she's a nice pick in the third round based on potential.
Overall Grade: C
The team needed a point guard, so they did get that. Unfortunately, they got two of them and basically nothing else. Houston is going to be an awful team. They have no scoring and they are getting very old. I like Erica White, I really do, but you have to have confidence in your first and second round picks (third round picks are for potential). If they believe Ajavon will be a starting point guard, draft her with your fifth pick and draft a shooting guard/small forward in the second round. If you don't have a lot of confidence in Ajavon at point, draft a shooting guard/small forward in the first round and take White in the second. When you're the Shock and you're already a playoff team you can draft the best talent available. When you're the Comets, you need to draft for need. It looks like they had no plan at all, which means they ended up with some talent, but not a good team.
Washington Mystics - Crystal Langhorne (R1, P6), Lindsey Pluimer (R2, P20), Krystal Vaughn (R3, P34)
The Mystics have a pretty solid core with Alana Beard, DeLisha Milton-Jones, Monique Curry and Nakia Sanford, so they could stand to draft Crystal Langhorne, who played locally at Maryland. They don't have any glaring positional needs, so you might as well take who you think is the best available. And Milton-Jones (33 years old), while still very talented, isn't getting any younger. Langhorne has been criticized for being undersized, but she has a wide array of post moves and won't be counted on for a large amount of scoring right out of the shoot anyway. A wing scorer wouldn't have been a bad pick (Tamera Young, Amber Holt), but neither of them are locks to be stars in the WNBA. Langhorne is a safe pick. She may not be a star, but she'll certainly be a contributor for a long time.
Lindsey Pluimer is a 6-foot-4 forward, with a European-type game. She can step out and shoot the 3, in addition to score inside. I'm not sure she'll really develop into much of a talent, but she has size and is a very good shooter. Krystal Vaughn didn't play much until her junior year, but she's a good athlete.
Overall Grade: C+
The Mystics didn't need much from this draft, but they also didn't get much from it. Langhorne has a lot of talent, but the second and third round picks are based more on potential than anything else. It's not a bad thing to add a local college star from a championship team who will probably average 14 and 7 with regular playing time. It's just not a splashy pick.
New York Liberty - Essence Carson (R1, P7), Erlana Larkins (R1, P14), Wanisha Smith (R2, P27), Alberta Auguste (R3, P35)
Thanks to some wheeling and dealing last year, the Liberty ended up with two first round picks this draft. That was definitely a good idea, considering the depth of the draft, and will continue to be a sound strategy for any team in the future. To be blatantly honest, the overall talent level coming into the WNBA improves almost every draft. As more girls play, and as more college parity exists, the drafts will get better. That's really not any groundbreaking statement, but teams need to realize that draft picks will become more important. That's a tangent, but teams should really try to stockpile draft picks whenever possible. The Liberty went local just like Washington in picking Rutgers guard Essence Carson with the seventh overall pick. I saw Carson play a lot in college and she's a legitimate perimeter defender - something very rare in basketball. She has some offensive game, but really needs to put it together consistently. Just like Matee Ajavon, Carson may flourish in a pro-style offense. She certainly has the athleticism to do so and she did shoot 42 percent this past year, largely on mid-range jumpers, even if she only averaged 10.8 points per game. She may only average about the same in the WNBA, but the Liberty now have two of the best perimeter defenders in the league, with her and Ashley Battle. With the number of talented wing players coming into the league every year (and already in the league), that is going to grow in importance. If Carson can develop into a Bruce Bowen type, that'd be great. With their second first round pick, the Liberty selected Erlana Larkins from North Carolina. Larkins really dropped in this draft. She was predicted as the third or fourth pick in the draft as little as a month or two ago, but she ended up dropping to 14. I'm not sure Larkins is really going to be that good in the WNBA - she's undersized and not very athletic - but at the end of the first round, it was worth the pick. When you already had a first round pick and you have a chance to grab a player whose value is dropping, it's always worth it. I don't think she'll be a scorer in the pros, but she can at least rebound and she's a good passer for a post.
Wanisha Smith and Alberta Auguste are both winning college players (from Duke and Tennessee respectively), which is something that's never bad to have. They are both very similar players, though. They obviously had talent, but never really developed it. Smith never played up to her potential at Duke, after making the Freshman All-ACC team. Auguste was maybe the best junior college player in the country in 2006, but she was only a minor piece on Tennessee's last two championship teams. At times, watching her I would think "Wow, she's got a lot of talent for scoring." And at other times, she would just disappear entirely.
Overall Grade: B-
New York did pretty well with their first two picks, but Smith and Auguste are probably wasted picks. The Liberty was set at point guard with Loree Moore, maybe the best young point guard in the league along with Lindsay Whalen, and both Janel McCarville and Cathrine Kraayeveld developed as respectable post players last season. The only question about the draft is whether they got scoring. Shameka Christon was their leading scorer last year and she averaged just 11.2 points per game. Tamera Young and Amber Holt, the next two picks, would've been better scorers than Carson. I'm not sure Carson can't be a pretty good scorer in the league though. Smith and Auguste are both possible scorers, but only if they take a major step forward. Larkins, a post player, wasn't a necessity, but considering how far she dropped it wasn't a bad selection.
Atlanta Dream - Tamera Young (R1, P8), Morenike Atunrase (R2, P24), Danielle Hood (R3, P32); traded Atunrase and veteran Ann Wauters for Camille Little and Chioma Nnamaka (R2, P21)
The expansion Dream's first draft is certainly off the board, name wise. They went the undervalued, underrated route for sure. Tamera Young, their first pick, was certainly a very good player at James Madison, but with any mid-major player you have to look at what she did against top competition. This year against ranked competition, Young was 12-of-26 for 28 points against Maryland, 8-of-21 for 20 points against George Washington and 6-of-17 for 14 points and 8-of-19 for 17 points in two games against Old Dominion. That's a fairly small body of evidence to measure her against, but shooting 41 percent against those three teams isn't awful. She has legit size, at 6-foot-2, so she's certainly an intriguing prospect at the next level. You do worry about the fact that she isn't a good shooter though. She was bad from 3-point range in her career (142-of-478, 29.7 percent) and she's barely an average free throw shooter (67.1 percent for her career), so it's natural to assume much of her scoring came close to the basket. Not having seen her play, I can't say how good she'll be in the WNBA, but the team certainly needs a wing scorer.
Chioma Nnamaka, who they traded for in the second round, and Danielle Hood, their third round pick, both fill the same wing scorer role. Nnamaka is almost solely a 3-point shooter, but she's very good at it. Last year, 61 percent of her field goal attempts came from behind the arc and she shot 39 percent. She'll be a nice player to bring off the bench and stretch the defense, so they can go to their strength, which will be their inside presence with Erika DeSouza, Katie Feenstra and Camille Little, who they traded for on draft day. I saw Hood play quite a bit in college and she has the ability to be a contributor as well. She's very reminiscent of Charde Houston, both in size and skill.
Overall Grade: B
It's hard to know how to grade the Dream on their first draft. If Tamera Young develops into the player they hope - a consistent 15 to 17 point scorer - the grade deserves to be bumped up a little. If she doesn't develop at the next level, then the grade deserves to go down into the C range. Either way, I like that the Dream didn't stand pat on draft day and made a trade to acquire Camille Little, who should contribute immediately. Nnamaka and Hood are at the very least intriguing picks with some pro potential. Also, Atlanta did a good job of acquiring positional needs, unlike Houston.
Connecticut Sun - Amber Holt (R1, P9), Ketia Swanier (R1, P12), Jolene Anderson (R2, P23), Lauren Ervin (R3, P37)
Connecticut was left with a devastated roster due to injuries, defections and pregnancies, so they had a lot of work to do. With Nykesha Sales sitting out the season due to injury and Katie Douglas requesting a trade to Indiana, the Sun was desperately in need of some scoring. The selection of Amber Holt was made for that reason. Holt, out of Middle Tennessee State, is another mid-major player. She scored an absurd amount of points (27.3 ppg as a senior) and she did score against top level competition. She had 16 points against Maryland, 28 points against Tennessee and 41 points against LSU (with no Sylvia Fowles). She's not very big (6-foot) and not a good 3-point shooter (29.3 percent for her career) which are definite red flags, but coach Mike Thibault has always been a good talent evaluater so I guess you have to trust him. I have my doubts and they badly need Holt this year, not down the road. Ketia Swanier, the Sun's second first round pick, fills the need for a backup point guard while Erin Phillips is in Australia with the national team. I saw every game Swanier played in college (and covered the team her freshman year) and she definitely improved her junior and senior years, but the Sun probably reached for her a little. She won't be a starter in the league and while I realize she won't need to be one (with Lindsay Whalen being a very talented point), it would be nice to get a starter with a first round pick. You also figure in the fact that Phillips - a player that looked very talented in 2006 - will be back eventually and the Swanier pick was probably a reach. You probably could've gotten by with Jamie Carey playing the sole backup.
The second round pick of Jolene Anderson is pretty underwhelming. Anderson was a good scorer in the Big Ten, for Wisconsin, but is just 5-foot-8 and not particularly good at any one thing. She was an average 3-point shooter (32 percent for her career) and an okay shooter for a guard (42 percent for her career). She was a good rebounder for a guard, but I doubt that will translate to the next level. She's scrappy and physical, but she's not a very exciting pick. Lauren Ervin tore her ACL this season and will not play in 2008. She is a very good talent though and a nice pick for the third round. Thibault is big on drafting players (both foreign and domestic) for down the road. It's worked some and it's not worked some, but it is definitely worth the risk. Ervin is 6-foot-3 and both a good scorer and rebounder. She definitely has the potential to be a very good player in the WNBA if she bounces back from injury.
Overall Grade: C+
Like with Atlanta, and their selection of Tamera Young, this grade depends on how good Amber Holt is. Since I really have no idea if she'll be any good, I can't properly assess the draft. If I was going to guess, I'd say Holt won't be a big time player in the league. If she is, it'll probably take a couple years. There's no question Mike Thibault coveted Candice Wiggins in this draft and tried to do all he could to trade up for her. The Lynx wouldn't budge, however, and it left the Sun in a tough position from a standpoint of need. They need an instant scorer on the next level, but none was available at pick No. 9. They went with the closest thing to it in Holt and are going to need to hope for the best. The pick of Ketia Swanier fills a short term hole, but I'm not sure about the long term benefits of it. It would surprise me tremendously if Jolene Anderson contributed and Lauren Ervin is a pick for next year. It would not surprise me at all to see the Sun struggle at times this season.
Sacramento Monarchs - Laura Harper (R1, P10), A'Quonesia Franklin (R3, P38), Izabela Piekarska (R3, P40), Charel Allen (R3, P43)
The Monarchs didn't have any picks in the second round this year, so their first round pick was especially important. With that pick they took Laura Harper, from Maryland. Harper is a solid player and I think she will have a successful, but unremarkable career. Don't get me wrong, though, there's nothing wrong with that. She's good at a lot of things, but not especially great at anything. She'll probably be the same in the pros. She averaged 14.1 points, 8.5 rebounds and 1.3 blocks per game last year. The far-and-away biggest need for the Monarchs was to get some size and Harper certainly addresses that. The loss of Yolanda Griffith to free agency was a big loss for the team in the post and Harper is actually a very similar player. If they can get nine points and five rebounds per game - what Griffith gave them last year - out of Harper, that would be all they need.
Sacramento did have three third round picks, and they used them to draft for a lot of potential. A'Quonesia Franklin was completely blown out of proportion in college. Texas A&M had a great season, and Franklin was their marquee name, but she's really not a very good player. She doesn't shoot the ball well (35 percent for her career, 31 percent from 3-point range), she's undersized (5-foot-3) and she wasn't even 2-to-1 in assist-to-turnover ratio last year. When you compare her to Kimberly Beck, who went just two picks prior, it's not even close. Beck is a much better player in every respect. And for the record, with Kara Lawson and Ticha Penicheiro the Monarchs didn't need a point guard. Izabela Piekarska is a nice pick for interior depth. She's 6-foot-5, though she does have (maybe obviously) more of a European game. She can step outside and shoot the 3-pointer pretty well. She is, however, now the tallest player on Sacramento's roster. Charel Allen, the very last pick in the draft, is maybe my favorite selection of the entire draft. I saw Allen play fairly often at Notre Dame and she is a very skilled player. Yes, she's undersized (5-foot-11) and she needs to add some muscle, but she has the ability to create her own shot. She's really a poor man's Candice Wiggins. She's a very good shooter and she's a good rebounder for her size too (5.9 rebounds per game over her final two seasons). She shot 44 percent from the field last year and she took all mid-range jumpers. Allen destroyed Oklahoma in the NCAA tournament this year, scoring 35 points. They just couldn't stop her to save their life.
Overall Grade: B+
The Monarchs started their draft with a good pick and they closed their draft with a good pick. Harper addresses an immediate need and should be a solid contributor for the Monarchs, even in the first season. Harper's not a star in the WNBA, like many of the picks in the first half of the first round could be, but she's a player who will post 13 points and 7 rebounds per game for a long time. Sacramento is already a good team. They have two good forwards in Rebekkah Brunson and Nicole Powell and probably the best point guard tandem in the league with Ticha Penicheiro and Kara Lawson. Harper addresses the center position vacated by Yolanda Griffith and I honestly believe Charel Allen could be the answer at the two guard. Chelsea Newton, who stars there now, is not a big time player. I know Allen has some physical development to take care of, but I don't think there's a doubt in my mind she's the steal of this draft. A team like Connecticut should've taken Allen in the second or third round.
Phoenix Mercury - LaToya Pringle (R1, P13), Leilani Mitchell (R2, P25), Marscilla Packer (R3, P41)
The defending champion Mercury had a pretty quiet draft, but after a 23-11 season and a WNBA title, you don't exactly need to make many improvements. There's no question the Mercury needed to draft a post player in the first round and LaToya Pringle was the choice. The Mercury had a few options - Pringle, Erlana Larkins, Nicky Anosike, Olayinka Sanni - and they made the right choice in selecting Pringle, the most athletic of the bunch. Paul Westhead is gone as coach, but I assume the team will still run an uptempo offense. Larkins would've been decimated running up and down the court and Sanni and Anosike aren't much better runners. Pringle comes from a run-and-gun style at North Carolina and will fit in perfectly in the same system in Phoenix. Tangela Smith is getting older (31 years old) and the team has little to no interior depth. The team played with three guards last year (Cappie Pondexter, Kelly Miller, Diana Taurasi), so the addition of Pringle gives them the ability to play a little bigger with her and Smith, which will be very important this year with the Lauren Jackson-Swin Cash combo in Seattle and of course the Lisa Leslie-Candace Parker combo in Los Angeles.
The Mercury's second round pick, Leilani Mitchell, gives them a younger point guard to backup Kelly Miller. She's only 5-foot-5, but she had great numbers at Utah as a senior - 7.5 assists per game and a 47 percent shooter. Marscilla Packer is a 3-point shooter, who would fit into the system nicely, though she's probably more of a pick just for the hell of it.
Overall Grade: B
The Mercury didn't do much of anything with their second and third round picks (though Leilani Mitchell is a darkhorse pick), but the LaToya Pringle pick was a perfect one in my eyes. There are a lot of stupid picks in the WNBA Draft, where teams can't seem to figure out their positional needs or system needs or seem to just be picking a player for marketing purposes. Pringle is the perfect pick because the Mercury needed a post player and she fits the Phoenix system, straight out of college. Any WNBA personnel person should be hoping to get one good player out of a draft. Mitchell and Marscilla Packer may not be anything of need, but Pringle will almost certainly fit the bill of a good player.
San Antonio Silver Stars - Chioma Nnamaka (R2, P21), Alex Anderson (R3, P39); traded Nnamaka and Camille Little to Atlanta for Ann Wauters and Morenike Atunrase (R2, P24)
The Silver Stars might as well have just ignored the draft. They didn't have a first round pick and they traded their second round pick, and Camille Little, to pick up veteran center Ann Wauters and Morenike Atunrase. That doesn't leave me with much to analyze. Wauters is a veteran, so you know what you are getting there. She's not a great player, but San Antonio is a good team and they added post depth with Wauters. I guess they don't have much confidence in Sandora Irvin. It's not a bad trade for a team that was 20-14 and thinks they can get over the hump if they give Ruth Riley some help inside.
As for their actual picks, Morenike Atunrase is an average player. She doesn't score particularly well and she's undersized to play the two guard. She's a good defender, but it's unlikely that alone will sustain her at the next level. If she was a better shooter or could create her own shot she could get by, but she shoots 37 percent from the field (35 percent from 3) and will have a hard time creating her own shot at the next level with her limited ball-handling skills (more turnovers than assists as a 5-foot-10 guard/forward). I do like her hair though. Alex Anderson, their third round pick, is a mid-major pick. She went to Tennessee-Chattanooga and averaged 18.9 points and 9.4 rebounds per game over her final two seasons. Chattanooga played against Tennessee early this past season and Anderson was awful - 3-of-12 for eight points with six turnovers. Against Kansas St. in the first round of the NCAA tournament, Anderson was 3-of-14 for nine points. Those are not good signs. She won't be keyed on in the pros like she was at Chattanooga, but you still can't have any confidence in her ability at the next level. She's listed as a guard/forward, but she's really a forward. She's 6-foot-1, but she has shown no outside shooting ability.
Overall Grade: D
Again, basically San Antonio ignored the draft this year. Clearly that was the plan, so they probably don't care that they had an awful draft. They did trade for Ann Wauters, but that was basically Wauters for Camille Little, so I can't factor that in to the draft grade. The Silver Stars have Becky Hammon and Sophia Young, so they don't need a lot of help. If they can get some more out of Ruth Riley, the addition of Wauters will make the team better, but they aren't a title contender in my eyes. And I don't see this year's draft providing any help. San Antonio also gave Atlanta their first round pick next year, so this team better win soon and I just don't see any chance in the world of that happening.
Indiana Fever - Khadijah Whittington (R2, P26)
The Fever went the trade route as well, though they did it before the draft. They made the blockbuster trade of the offseason, sending Tamika Whitmore to the Connecticut Sun for all-star Katie Douglas. That left the Fever with a big hole in the paint, but Douglas is a very good player who will definitely improve the team immediately. The real question is how healthy Tamika Catchings will be coming off her Achilles' tendon injury. The team also loses Anna DeForge, who signed with the Lynx.
The Fever drafted Khadijah Whittington with their only pick in the draft, 26th overall. Whittington is actually a player reminiscent of Catchings, though to compare her to Catchings is getting way ahead of ourselves. Whittington has a very versatile game, offensively and defensively, and was a good pick for Indiana. The only negative is that the Fever probably would've benefited from a post player over a wing. With Tully Bevilaqua, K.B. Sharp and Tan White the team has plenty of point guard depth. Catchings is obviously an MVP candidate at shooting guard (really more of a combo guard) and Katie Douglas is a perennial all-star at small forward. Tammy Sutton-Brown is an all-star at center. So the obvious need was at power forward, with Whitmore going to the Sun, but there were no power forwards worth drafting at that point.
Overall Grade: C-
Like the Silver Stars, there's not a lot to grade here. However, for only having one pick and a team that is already a contender for Eastern Conference champions, the Khadijah Whittington pick is a pretty good one. If they want to work Catchings back into the lineup slowly as she recovers from injury, Whittington fits into her spot well. I'm surprised Whittington dropped as far as she did, so in that respect it worked out very well for the Fever, even if post depth was a bigger need.
Seattle Storm - Allie Quigley (R2, P22), Kimberly Beck (R3, P36)
Everyone's hot pick to win the 2008 WNBA title actually had a good draft despite trading away their first round pick. I have a bit of a soft spot for Allie Quigley, who I think is a very good, gritty player. She's one of those intangibles players, though she's also pretty good statistically-speaking. She can create her own shot decently well and she's a good shooter (43 percent for her career). For some reason her 3-point shooting declined as her college career went on, even though she was taking more shots as a freshman. She was 79-of-173 (45.7 percent) her freshman year from 3, but the next three years - even though she was taking fewer 3-pointers - she shot 36 percent every year. If she can pick her average up some, and not even necessarily as good as her freshman year, she would be better off at the next level. The Storm is as stacked as stacked can be, but the one thing they could use is a shooting guard.
I also really like the Storm's third round pick, Kimberly Beck. Beck played at George Washington, so you worry a little about the transition to the pros, but she had great numbers in college. Obviously the Storm have Sue Bird at point guard, so Beck is as far from a need as you can get. Then again, Beck is also a third round pick. She has decent size, at 5-foot-8, and had a 2.6-to-1 assist to turnover ratio as a senior. She's also a 41 percent career shooter, which is pretty good, though she's not a scorer. To nab her as a third round pick, when a player like Angela Tisdale - a point guard with worse numbers in every regard though from a larger program - goes ahead of Beck could turn into a huge steal. At worse, it's a third round pick you can easily lose.
Overall Grade: C+
Considering the Storm had no first round pick and very little in the way of needs, this was a pretty good draft. The Storm have Sue Bird, an all-star point guard, Sheryl Swoopes, a legend even if she's aging, at small forward, Swin Cash, an all-star power forward, and Lauren Jackson, clearly the best player in the league, at center. The Atlanta Dream took both Betty Lennox and Iziane Castro Marques in the expansion draft, so they really needed to get a two guard. Hopefully Allie Quigley will help fill that role. The team also needed help at backup point guard and Kimberly Beck could address that. Tanisha Wright is really their only backup at point and she's hardly anything special, as she turns the ball over way too much.
Wednesday, January 2, 2008
National Championship Speed
Over the past month, leading up to the BCS National Championship Game, the slight on Ohio St., especially following last season's collapse against Michigan was their lack of speed. It's always been a slight against the Big Ten in general, when compared to the SEC. You heard the Ohio St. players say it was a myth and you heard the media argue on both sides. Yet, no one actually looked at the numbers in any mainstream media outlets.
I went to Rivals.com and compiled a list of the 40-yard dash times of all of the speed positions for both LSU and Ohio St. Anyone who follows recruiting knows these numbers are certainly tweaked and are certainly unofficial. However, they are a decent guideline and if every player bumps up their time a tenth of a second, then they will be equal anyway. Check out the numbers:
LSU
WR Demetrius Byrd - 4.4
WR Early Doucet - 4.4
RB Jacob Hester - 4.6
TE Keith Zinger - 4.6
ATH/KR Trindon Holliday - 4.3
DE Tyson Jackson - 4.8
DE Kirston Pittman - 4.5
LB Luke Sanders - 4.6
LB Darry Beckwith - 4.53
LB Ali Highsmith - 4.5
CB Jonathon Zenon - 4.5
CB Chevis Jackson - 4.5
SS Craig Steltz - 4.5
FS Curtis Taylor - 4.6
OHIO STATE
WR Brian Hartline - 4.59
WR Brian Robiskie - 4.52
RB Chris Wells - 4.5
TE Rory Nicol - 4.75
ATH/KR Ray Small - 4.45
DE Vernon Gholston - 4.5
DE Cameron Heyward - 5.17
LB Larry Grant - 4.4
LB James Laurinaitis - 4.7
LB Marcus Freeman - 4.6
CB Malcom Jenkins - 4.43
CB Donald Washington - 4.5
SS Kurt Coleman - 4.41
FS Anderson Russell - 4.59
When you break it down by offense, there's no question LSU is faster. Both Doucet and Byrd are significantly faster than Robiskie and Hartline. At running back, Hester is slower than Wells, but LSU does cycle in Keiland Williams regularly, who runs a 4.4 and is faster than Wells. Tight end isn't all that important a comparison, because Ohio St. is more prone to use a blocking end. As for return men, it isn't even close. Trindon Holliday, a top class NCAA sprinter, is clearly the fastest player on either team and probably the fastest football player in the country. On the whole, the offense of LSU is certainly faster.
On defense, the LSU defensive ends are probably slightly faster. Gholston may be the fastest of the four ends, but the two on LSU together are better. Heyward's 40 time is so slow because he came into college as a defensive tackle. He's probably cut that down a few tenths by now, but he's still not that fast. The linebacking corps for LSU is also faster. I'd imagine Laurinaitis has gotten faster since entering college, when he was a little green, but the entire corps of LSU is still faster. The Ohio St. secondary, however, is faster than LSU. Part of that is Malcom Jenkins, a top NFL prospect, but the rest of the OSU secondary has a lot of speed as well. That surprised me a little, but Ohio St. has had a very good secondary over the past decade.
On the whole, LSU is a faster team. What that means on the field next Monday, who knows? They don't play the same type of football. But the Ohio St. speed factor is an issue and they are slower.
I went to Rivals.com and compiled a list of the 40-yard dash times of all of the speed positions for both LSU and Ohio St. Anyone who follows recruiting knows these numbers are certainly tweaked and are certainly unofficial. However, they are a decent guideline and if every player bumps up their time a tenth of a second, then they will be equal anyway. Check out the numbers:
LSU
WR Demetrius Byrd - 4.4
WR Early Doucet - 4.4
RB Jacob Hester - 4.6
TE Keith Zinger - 4.6
ATH/KR Trindon Holliday - 4.3
DE Tyson Jackson - 4.8
DE Kirston Pittman - 4.5
LB Luke Sanders - 4.6
LB Darry Beckwith - 4.53
LB Ali Highsmith - 4.5
CB Jonathon Zenon - 4.5
CB Chevis Jackson - 4.5
SS Craig Steltz - 4.5
FS Curtis Taylor - 4.6
OHIO STATE
WR Brian Hartline - 4.59
WR Brian Robiskie - 4.52
RB Chris Wells - 4.5
TE Rory Nicol - 4.75
ATH/KR Ray Small - 4.45
DE Vernon Gholston - 4.5
DE Cameron Heyward - 5.17
LB Larry Grant - 4.4
LB James Laurinaitis - 4.7
LB Marcus Freeman - 4.6
CB Malcom Jenkins - 4.43
CB Donald Washington - 4.5
SS Kurt Coleman - 4.41
FS Anderson Russell - 4.59
When you break it down by offense, there's no question LSU is faster. Both Doucet and Byrd are significantly faster than Robiskie and Hartline. At running back, Hester is slower than Wells, but LSU does cycle in Keiland Williams regularly, who runs a 4.4 and is faster than Wells. Tight end isn't all that important a comparison, because Ohio St. is more prone to use a blocking end. As for return men, it isn't even close. Trindon Holliday, a top class NCAA sprinter, is clearly the fastest player on either team and probably the fastest football player in the country. On the whole, the offense of LSU is certainly faster.
On defense, the LSU defensive ends are probably slightly faster. Gholston may be the fastest of the four ends, but the two on LSU together are better. Heyward's 40 time is so slow because he came into college as a defensive tackle. He's probably cut that down a few tenths by now, but he's still not that fast. The linebacking corps for LSU is also faster. I'd imagine Laurinaitis has gotten faster since entering college, when he was a little green, but the entire corps of LSU is still faster. The Ohio St. secondary, however, is faster than LSU. Part of that is Malcom Jenkins, a top NFL prospect, but the rest of the OSU secondary has a lot of speed as well. That surprised me a little, but Ohio St. has had a very good secondary over the past decade.
On the whole, LSU is a faster team. What that means on the field next Monday, who knows? They don't play the same type of football. But the Ohio St. speed factor is an issue and they are slower.
Thursday, December 27, 2007
Eli Just Threw Another Interception
All I've heard for the past season of talk radio, when not discussing Johan Santana or the Mitchell Report, is that Eli Manning is terrible. There's little debate from the fanbase. It's been three and a half years of starts for Eli Manning and since that's more than enough time to judge the career of Eli, it is worth doing so. There's no doubt this is a fairly thin era for the quarterback, in an an era in which the position is as important as it's ever been. So where does Eli stand? Here's my rankings of all of the (meaningful) QBs in the NFL today.
1.) Tom Brady, QB, New England Patriots - Maybe you've heard of him. There's no sense in debating it, especially after this season. He's got the rings and he can certainly put up the numbers. He's an easy choice and the only choice.
2.) Peyton Manning, QB, Indianapolis Colts - Another clear choice, but clearly No. 2. If he could win a few more Super Bowls, he could stack up with Brady. As it stands, Brady and Manning are clearly the best two QBs in the NFL and the only surefire Hall of Famers on this list currently in their prime (though Peyton is fast approaching decline).
3.) Ben Roethlisberger, QB, Pittsburgh Steelers - A year ago, Roethlisberger is in the 5-10 region, second tier, in the league. This year, he finally put up the numbers to match his winning record. This is also the first year I felt Roethlisberger did more to win games than the rest of his team. He stepped out from the shadow and earned a top 5 ranking on this list. He's probably the only QB in the top 10 of this list that has entered his prime as well (Tony Romo and David Garrard are still building to their prime).
4.) Brett Favre, QB, Green Bay Packers - Favre is, of course, the only other surefire Hall of Famer, but is certainly significantly past his prime. He's a great quarterback, but he's never been one of my favorites, because he has the one trait you hate in a QB more than any other - reckless inconsistently. Earlier in his career he was a gunslinger, yes, but people who say "Oh, he's always been like that" are simply not correct. From 1994 to 1997, the prime of his career, he was +89 in TDs to INTs. And while he is still a very effective QB in these slim times, his +11 number this year is tied for the seventh best total of his career - hardly more than average.
5.) Tony Romo, QB, Dallas Cowboys - I don't rank him as high as some might because of his short resume. I certainly think he has the ability to be great, but let's let him show it first. The NFC is weak and doesn't figure to get stronger any time within the next few years due to a strange phenomenon in which the AFC dominates both the top of the league (Pats, Colts, Steelers) and the bottom (Dolphins, Raiders, Ravens, Jets) and therefore the draft. That gives Romo plenty of chances to make a mark in a Super Bowl and increase his position on this list. With Favre almost done, and Matt Hasselbeck on the downslope, Romo is the only clear top level starter in the NFC.
6.) Matt Hasselbeck, QB, Seattle Seahawks - Hasselbeck is clearly on the downside of his career, but he has a few good years left in him. This year he showed he can still carry a team when it's necessary. The gap between Romo and Hasselbeck is not very big. I gave serious consideration to switching them on this list. Hasselbeck has taken his team to a Super Bowl and put up Pro Bowl numbers for more than one and a half years. He's also five years older though and over the next five years Romo will be entering his prime, whereas Hasselbeck will be closing out his career. I really like Hasselbeck, but I doubt he'll ever get another chance to win a Super Bowl. He's still underrated and deserves this spot on the list.
7.) Drew Brees, QB, New Orleans Saints - In the interest of full disclosure, Brees absolutely ruined my fantasy football team this year. I'm still bitter. But I do like Brees on the whole. I wrote an article many years ago (which you can look up on Google) advocating the Chargers not drafting Eli Manning or Philip Rivers and instead building around Brees, who I felt was very underrated. Granted they fleeced the Giants and that was the right thing to do, but the point still remains - Brees was underrated and has since proved it. He's also clearly still better than both Manning and Rivers these four years later. He should rebound next year with Deuce McAllister back.
8.) Carson Palmer, QB, Cincinnati Bengals - If you could build a prototypical QB, Brady and Peyton Manning would be the two closest currently playing, but Palmer would be third. He had an awful year in 2007. There's no debating how bad he was considering how many weapons he has to throw to. But let's not forget that he threw 60 TDs and 25 INTs the past two seasons. If he hadn't had such an awful year in 2007, he'd be a few spots higher on this list. There was no excuse for this year, but at his best he's the third QB in the league. This year he was about the 15th best, so I'll put him somewhere in the middle.
9.) David Garrard, QB, Jacksonville Jaguars - I'd like to put Garrard higher on this list, but he's done nothing to justify it. I also have a sneaking suspiscion he's very lucky to have Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones-Drew in his backfield. Could he go out and win as the leader of his team? I have no idea. As I wrote earlier, Roethlisberger was in that position in the past. He's come out and shown he can. Garrard has yet to do that. He's still a top 10 QB though because he's done exactly what he should in the current role he inhabits. He doesn't make mistakes, almost literally none, and that's a great boost to his team. You can't ask a player to do anything more than play to the gameplan and play to it well. Garrard always does that.
10.) Jeff Garcia, QB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Garcia is only six months younger than Brett Favre, so despite having a good season and a good track record of winning (except for on the Browns, of course), he's almost done. Still though, put him on a good team and he can carry you to the playoffs. I'm not sure he'd do it in the AFC, but he doesn't play in the AFC, so we'll never know. He's also pretty injury prone. But he was second in the NFL in fewest INTs per pass attempts (to Garrard) and he wins games.
11.) Marc Bulger, QB, St. Louis Rams - I don't exactly know what to do with Bulger. I think you could probably put him ninth, but you could just as easily put him here. He is a legitimate starter in this league and once you get past No. 13 (as you'll see), that isn't necessarily the case aymore. He was awful in every category this year, even moreso than Carson Palmer. His team just totally imploded. And frankly he didn't deserve the money he got on his contract prior to this year, because he's really only had one great season (2006) while he's being paid like a top 5 QB. He isn't that, but he is an entrenched starter.
12.) Donovan McNabb, QB, Philadelphia Eagles - No one likes McNabb in Philly, but he is still good enough to win games. McNabb's biggest problem, and it is a big one, is injuries. On the field, he still puts up pretty good numbers. There's no doubt he's on the downside of his career though and as a mobile QB that means even more. He can be a decent pocket passer with the right team around him and he's still clearly in the top half of the league. His completion percentage is low, but his INTs are low too. And let's not forget the only time he had a legit wide receiver, he went to the Super Bowl. I think he could still, in a weak NFC, and assuming he somehow stays healthy a full year.
13.) Jake Delhomme, QB, Carolina Panthers - It's a bit hard to know what to do with Delhomme considering he didn't play much at all this year. He actually played very well when he did (8 TDs, 1 INT in 3 games), but his arm injury could be pretty serious and he's not exactly a young pup. If he bounces back and plays like he did in 2004 and 2005 he can be a top 10 QB. He was showing some signs of decline last year (though not large signs, still a lower QB rating and 7 fewer TDs than in 2005 despite just 4 less attempts) and his return is still a question mark. I've always like Delhomme though, so hopefully he'll bounce back. If he does, he'll surpass Jeff Garcia at least, who is certainly on the decline, and probably Donovan McNabb as well.
13.) Jay Cutler, QB, Denver Broncos - See? That's what we call a drop. I think Cutler has the potential to be a Pro Bowl QB in this league, but we obviously haven't seen it yet. His team is average at best and his offensive weapons are as well. His offensive line isn't nearly as good as the Broncos have had in recent years and while Brandon Marshall is a talented receiver, he's still developing along with Cutler. Travis Henry didn't work out nearly as well as everyone (including me) thought he would. He has a big arm and he has a much better completion percentage than any of the other young QBs who'd be in this spot (Derek Anderson, Philip Rivers, Eli Manning). He just needs to learn the position more and the team needs to get stronger around him.
14.) Derek Anderson, QB, Cleveland Browns - I'm a Browns fan and I hold Anderson to high standards. He's had one good season and it wasn't as good as most would like you to believe. He didn't deserve the Pro Bowl many thought he got snubbed on. The first six weeks, he went up and down like a yo-yo in QB ratings. After that he settled into a very mediocre string for the rest of the season, hovering in the 70s and low 80s. That's not terrible, but it's certainly average. And he laid an egg in the biggest game of the season, throwing four interceptions against the Bengals in Week 16. He also has way too low a completion percentage (56.6%) considering his very talented receivers - Braylon Edwards, Joe Jurevicius and Kellen Winslow Jr. We'll see if he builds on this season.
15.) Philip Rivers, QB, San Diego Chargers - Honestly, Rivers's team has done more to justify this position than he has. His numbers were very pedestrian this year. He was very solid last season, but you never like to see a young player take a significant step back, especially on a team that is maybe the most talent rich in the NFL. Maybe it was the coaching change, but even while the rest of the team got it together down the stretch, winning five straight, Rivers had one great game, two good games and two bad games. I think he can be a winning QB, but I'm not sure he'll ever be a star QB. Right now, he really just needs to get out of the way of LaDainian Tomlinson.
16.) Kurt Warner, QB, Arizona Cardinals - I know, I know, older than dirt. He can still play a little in this league though. His numbers (90 QB rating, 3,117 yards, 24 TD, 15 INT) are clearly better than a few guys ahead of him, but his age knocks him down a few notches. If you give him good protection and good receivers he's no different than a Drew Bledsoe or Vinny Testaverde. He can play forever. He's not going to take you to a Super Bowl at this point in his career, but frankly he's better than a lot of younger QBs. If you are building a team, he's obviously not someone you take, but if you want to win a game tomorrow he's better than a dozen supposedly more talented guys.
17.) Eli Manning, QB, New York Giants - Well, well, well, here's our boy. The latter Manning comes in one spot behind the man whose job he took in New York. If you had told me that right now, some four years later, I'd rather have Warner on my team than Eli, I wouldn't have believed you. But honestly, right now that's the case. Manning has been awful this year (70.9 QB rating, 3,085 yards, 19 TDs, 19 INTs). He makes more good plays than a lot of QBs in the league, but he also makes a lot more dumb plays. He instills no confidence in you when watching him. If it weren't for the fact that his team wins, he'd be a few spots lower on this list. The thing that is most scary though is that he's getting progressively worse as a QB. His interceptions and fumbles are trending upwards and his touchdowns are going down. That's just an awful sign for a QB who should be entering his prime.
18.) Matt Schaub, QB, Houston Texans - I'm not sure why everyone expected Schaub to come out this year and put up Pro Bowl numbers, but he did very well for a first-year QB. A few starts in Atlanta in relief didn't mean he wouldn't go through some growing pains in Houston. His numbers were pretty solid, he just needs to cut down on the INTs. He had a 66.4 completion percentage, which is very good. He's in the position where he could really step up and improve next season and launch up a few spots. He has the tools to do so and the completion percentage and lack of sacks is promising.
19.) Chad Pennington, QB, New York Jets - If you play Pennington in the right system he can still be a very effective QB. We all know he's not going to scare you with his arm, but that's fine. He just needs to play in a ball control offense. Give him protection and a good running game and he's a playoff QB. He's not going to win games on his own, but he's not going to lose them either. He did lead the NFL in completion percentage through Week 16 (though only 9 games). Obviously that is because most of his passes were dinks and dunks, but it's still not a bad thing. Minnesota could really use a guy like Pennington.
20.) Jon Kitna, QB, Detroit Lions - Kitna makes a lot of stupid plays. That's the best way to describe his game. He gets sacked too much, he throws too many interceptions and he fumbles too much. I also happen to think he says a lot of stupid things. And he's old and has never won a thing in his life. Other than that, he's a great QB. Granted his protection was awful this year and the running game was always questionable, but there's no excuse for having more INTs than TDs when you have Roy Williams and Calvin Johnson on your team. If he could cut down on all of the stupid plays, he'd be a viable QB in this league. But I'm not holding my breath.
21.) Sage Rosenfels, QB, Houston Texans - It's a bit shocking, I know, but Rosenfels actually had a good season. He's never really had an opportunity to prove himself, but I think he could actually play a little in the NFL. Over the past two years, on an average at best Houston team, he's had 17 TDs and 12 INTs and a 65.1 completion percentage - pretty good numbers. Maybe if you gave him a full season somewhere he'd be awful, but I think he'd be pretty solid. No, he's not a legitimate QB in the league, but his numbers are much better than a lot of young players that will soon be appearing on this list.
22.) Jason Campbell, QB, Washington Redskins - Here's one of those young, up-and-comers in the NFL. I think Campbell is decent, but nothing he does is impressive. And he's been outplayed, albeit in the very short term, by Doug Collins this year. The jury is very much still out, but he's improved slightly from his starting point last season. I don't really see him as being anything more than an average QB in this league, but maybe he'll be slightly better than that.
23.) Vince Young, QB, Tennessee Titans - Just because your team wins, it doesn't mean you are a good QB. Let's be clear, the Titans win because of their defense and this year because of a solid ground attack by LenDale White. Young has 9 TDs and 17 INTs - by far the worst ratio in the NFL. And his 376 yards and 3 TDs rushing aren't exactly groundbreaking either. Tarvaris Jackson, Tony Romo, Ben Roethlisberger and Jay Cutler are about as effective running (similar yards per carry and TDs). Young is a massively overrated QB. He hasn't proven anything in this league yet. His completion percentage and total yards have gone up this year, but almost every other number (TDs, INTs, rushing yards, rushing TDs) has gotten worse. He has a lot of room for improvement and he better start showing it if he really wants to be a top 15 QB in the league.
24.) Damon Huard, QB, Kansas City Chiefs - Huard really impressed me last year. I thought he had a chance to be a halfway decent QB (in the 15-20 range) in the league. Afterall, he did have 11 TDs and only 1 INT. Well, he was given a chance this year from the start and he's been much worse (11 TDs, 13 INTs). He's really only a back-up in this league. As far as back-ups go, he's not awful.
25.) Brian Griese, QB, Chicago Bears - Another back-up in the NFL thrust into a starting role. The only difference is, I never thought he was anything but a back-up. But, again, as far as back-ups go, he's really not that terrible. He's an experienced player at least. You just wish he'd cut down on the interceptions, since there's nothing more devastating than bringing in a back-up and having him throw INTs. Granted he threw the ball 45 times or more in three games this season, which makes absolutely no sense for a player like Griese on a defensive-oriented team.
26.) Trent Edwards, QB, Buffalo Bills - I'd like to rank Edwards higher, but he's way too young and he's done nothing to deserve it. Still though, I like his toughness and he certainly has the ability to move up on this list. I certainly think he has more talent than J.P. Losman, even if that isn't saying much. He should get the chance to start the season next year as the Bills starter and he'll get his chance to prove his ability. The schedule will be tougher next season and teams will be game planning for you. I'd like to see him succeed.
27.) Tarvaris Jackson, QB, Minnesota Vikings - Honestly, I thought Jackson had about a zero percent chance of starting for the Vikings next year and assumed the Vikings would draft a QB this upcoming draft. Then Jackson showed a little skill over a few weeks and I began to think maybe he did have some promise. Turns out, not surprisingly, that was about 100% because of Chester Taylor and Adrian Peterson. But, hey, those guys will be back next year and if Jackson can play all year like he did in Weeks 12 to 14 he could be a starter in this league. That's a big if though. Right now, I'm leaning toward taking a QB if I'm the Vikings, but it's a tough call.
28.) Joey Harrington, QB, Atlanta Falcons - Another year, another benching for Harrington. He's clearly not an NFL QB. But don't worry, he's a good guy and one hell of a piano player. To be fair, he's not nearly as bad as many would have you believe, but he also has no business starting in the NFL. He had a fairly respectable 61.8 completion percentage and a 7 TD-8 INT ratio is bad, but not Vince Young bad or even Tarvaris Jackson or Trent Dilfer bad. He's also not nearly as bad as David Carr, so at least he has that going for him.
29.) Kyle Boller, QB, Baltimore Ravens - Boller is in a similar situation to Harrington. His career is ostensibly over. If he wants to hang on and be a back-up in the league for a few more years, go for it. He's not a starter. Unless the Ravens, and Ozzie Newsome, are crazier than I think, they should draft a QB next year and start him Week 1. The team is collapsing as it is, they might as well start over at QB too. Just be sure the guy you draft (whether it's Brian Brohm, Andre Woodson or Matt Ryan) is mentally tough because his rookie season will be awful.
30.) Cleo Lemon, QB, Miami Dolphins - You can't say he doesn't try hard. Of course, you also can't say he's very good. For the record, I think John Beck is pretty awful too. Bill Parcells has his hands full. If I'm the Dolphins I trade the No. 1 pick and try to get as much for it as possible. I don't think you necessarily draft one of the Big Three in the draft next year, because it will do nothing but crush his spirit to be on this team. There's no question the QB is the most important position, but it's also the most volatile. Bringing a young QB into a halfway decent team is always better than bringing one into an awful team. Even if that seems obvious, it rarely gets done.
So there's your NFL QB rankings. It's a pretty motley crew after you get past the top 13. At least we have two of the greatest of all-time to watch at No. 1 and No. 2.
1.) Tom Brady, QB, New England Patriots - Maybe you've heard of him. There's no sense in debating it, especially after this season. He's got the rings and he can certainly put up the numbers. He's an easy choice and the only choice.
2.) Peyton Manning, QB, Indianapolis Colts - Another clear choice, but clearly No. 2. If he could win a few more Super Bowls, he could stack up with Brady. As it stands, Brady and Manning are clearly the best two QBs in the NFL and the only surefire Hall of Famers on this list currently in their prime (though Peyton is fast approaching decline).
3.) Ben Roethlisberger, QB, Pittsburgh Steelers - A year ago, Roethlisberger is in the 5-10 region, second tier, in the league. This year, he finally put up the numbers to match his winning record. This is also the first year I felt Roethlisberger did more to win games than the rest of his team. He stepped out from the shadow and earned a top 5 ranking on this list. He's probably the only QB in the top 10 of this list that has entered his prime as well (Tony Romo and David Garrard are still building to their prime).
4.) Brett Favre, QB, Green Bay Packers - Favre is, of course, the only other surefire Hall of Famer, but is certainly significantly past his prime. He's a great quarterback, but he's never been one of my favorites, because he has the one trait you hate in a QB more than any other - reckless inconsistently. Earlier in his career he was a gunslinger, yes, but people who say "Oh, he's always been like that" are simply not correct. From 1994 to 1997, the prime of his career, he was +89 in TDs to INTs. And while he is still a very effective QB in these slim times, his +11 number this year is tied for the seventh best total of his career - hardly more than average.
5.) Tony Romo, QB, Dallas Cowboys - I don't rank him as high as some might because of his short resume. I certainly think he has the ability to be great, but let's let him show it first. The NFC is weak and doesn't figure to get stronger any time within the next few years due to a strange phenomenon in which the AFC dominates both the top of the league (Pats, Colts, Steelers) and the bottom (Dolphins, Raiders, Ravens, Jets) and therefore the draft. That gives Romo plenty of chances to make a mark in a Super Bowl and increase his position on this list. With Favre almost done, and Matt Hasselbeck on the downslope, Romo is the only clear top level starter in the NFC.
6.) Matt Hasselbeck, QB, Seattle Seahawks - Hasselbeck is clearly on the downside of his career, but he has a few good years left in him. This year he showed he can still carry a team when it's necessary. The gap between Romo and Hasselbeck is not very big. I gave serious consideration to switching them on this list. Hasselbeck has taken his team to a Super Bowl and put up Pro Bowl numbers for more than one and a half years. He's also five years older though and over the next five years Romo will be entering his prime, whereas Hasselbeck will be closing out his career. I really like Hasselbeck, but I doubt he'll ever get another chance to win a Super Bowl. He's still underrated and deserves this spot on the list.
7.) Drew Brees, QB, New Orleans Saints - In the interest of full disclosure, Brees absolutely ruined my fantasy football team this year. I'm still bitter. But I do like Brees on the whole. I wrote an article many years ago (which you can look up on Google) advocating the Chargers not drafting Eli Manning or Philip Rivers and instead building around Brees, who I felt was very underrated. Granted they fleeced the Giants and that was the right thing to do, but the point still remains - Brees was underrated and has since proved it. He's also clearly still better than both Manning and Rivers these four years later. He should rebound next year with Deuce McAllister back.
8.) Carson Palmer, QB, Cincinnati Bengals - If you could build a prototypical QB, Brady and Peyton Manning would be the two closest currently playing, but Palmer would be third. He had an awful year in 2007. There's no debating how bad he was considering how many weapons he has to throw to. But let's not forget that he threw 60 TDs and 25 INTs the past two seasons. If he hadn't had such an awful year in 2007, he'd be a few spots higher on this list. There was no excuse for this year, but at his best he's the third QB in the league. This year he was about the 15th best, so I'll put him somewhere in the middle.
9.) David Garrard, QB, Jacksonville Jaguars - I'd like to put Garrard higher on this list, but he's done nothing to justify it. I also have a sneaking suspiscion he's very lucky to have Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones-Drew in his backfield. Could he go out and win as the leader of his team? I have no idea. As I wrote earlier, Roethlisberger was in that position in the past. He's come out and shown he can. Garrard has yet to do that. He's still a top 10 QB though because he's done exactly what he should in the current role he inhabits. He doesn't make mistakes, almost literally none, and that's a great boost to his team. You can't ask a player to do anything more than play to the gameplan and play to it well. Garrard always does that.
10.) Jeff Garcia, QB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Garcia is only six months younger than Brett Favre, so despite having a good season and a good track record of winning (except for on the Browns, of course), he's almost done. Still though, put him on a good team and he can carry you to the playoffs. I'm not sure he'd do it in the AFC, but he doesn't play in the AFC, so we'll never know. He's also pretty injury prone. But he was second in the NFL in fewest INTs per pass attempts (to Garrard) and he wins games.
11.) Marc Bulger, QB, St. Louis Rams - I don't exactly know what to do with Bulger. I think you could probably put him ninth, but you could just as easily put him here. He is a legitimate starter in this league and once you get past No. 13 (as you'll see), that isn't necessarily the case aymore. He was awful in every category this year, even moreso than Carson Palmer. His team just totally imploded. And frankly he didn't deserve the money he got on his contract prior to this year, because he's really only had one great season (2006) while he's being paid like a top 5 QB. He isn't that, but he is an entrenched starter.
12.) Donovan McNabb, QB, Philadelphia Eagles - No one likes McNabb in Philly, but he is still good enough to win games. McNabb's biggest problem, and it is a big one, is injuries. On the field, he still puts up pretty good numbers. There's no doubt he's on the downside of his career though and as a mobile QB that means even more. He can be a decent pocket passer with the right team around him and he's still clearly in the top half of the league. His completion percentage is low, but his INTs are low too. And let's not forget the only time he had a legit wide receiver, he went to the Super Bowl. I think he could still, in a weak NFC, and assuming he somehow stays healthy a full year.
13.) Jake Delhomme, QB, Carolina Panthers - It's a bit hard to know what to do with Delhomme considering he didn't play much at all this year. He actually played very well when he did (8 TDs, 1 INT in 3 games), but his arm injury could be pretty serious and he's not exactly a young pup. If he bounces back and plays like he did in 2004 and 2005 he can be a top 10 QB. He was showing some signs of decline last year (though not large signs, still a lower QB rating and 7 fewer TDs than in 2005 despite just 4 less attempts) and his return is still a question mark. I've always like Delhomme though, so hopefully he'll bounce back. If he does, he'll surpass Jeff Garcia at least, who is certainly on the decline, and probably Donovan McNabb as well.
13.) Jay Cutler, QB, Denver Broncos - See? That's what we call a drop. I think Cutler has the potential to be a Pro Bowl QB in this league, but we obviously haven't seen it yet. His team is average at best and his offensive weapons are as well. His offensive line isn't nearly as good as the Broncos have had in recent years and while Brandon Marshall is a talented receiver, he's still developing along with Cutler. Travis Henry didn't work out nearly as well as everyone (including me) thought he would. He has a big arm and he has a much better completion percentage than any of the other young QBs who'd be in this spot (Derek Anderson, Philip Rivers, Eli Manning). He just needs to learn the position more and the team needs to get stronger around him.
14.) Derek Anderson, QB, Cleveland Browns - I'm a Browns fan and I hold Anderson to high standards. He's had one good season and it wasn't as good as most would like you to believe. He didn't deserve the Pro Bowl many thought he got snubbed on. The first six weeks, he went up and down like a yo-yo in QB ratings. After that he settled into a very mediocre string for the rest of the season, hovering in the 70s and low 80s. That's not terrible, but it's certainly average. And he laid an egg in the biggest game of the season, throwing four interceptions against the Bengals in Week 16. He also has way too low a completion percentage (56.6%) considering his very talented receivers - Braylon Edwards, Joe Jurevicius and Kellen Winslow Jr. We'll see if he builds on this season.
15.) Philip Rivers, QB, San Diego Chargers - Honestly, Rivers's team has done more to justify this position than he has. His numbers were very pedestrian this year. He was very solid last season, but you never like to see a young player take a significant step back, especially on a team that is maybe the most talent rich in the NFL. Maybe it was the coaching change, but even while the rest of the team got it together down the stretch, winning five straight, Rivers had one great game, two good games and two bad games. I think he can be a winning QB, but I'm not sure he'll ever be a star QB. Right now, he really just needs to get out of the way of LaDainian Tomlinson.
16.) Kurt Warner, QB, Arizona Cardinals - I know, I know, older than dirt. He can still play a little in this league though. His numbers (90 QB rating, 3,117 yards, 24 TD, 15 INT) are clearly better than a few guys ahead of him, but his age knocks him down a few notches. If you give him good protection and good receivers he's no different than a Drew Bledsoe or Vinny Testaverde. He can play forever. He's not going to take you to a Super Bowl at this point in his career, but frankly he's better than a lot of younger QBs. If you are building a team, he's obviously not someone you take, but if you want to win a game tomorrow he's better than a dozen supposedly more talented guys.
17.) Eli Manning, QB, New York Giants - Well, well, well, here's our boy. The latter Manning comes in one spot behind the man whose job he took in New York. If you had told me that right now, some four years later, I'd rather have Warner on my team than Eli, I wouldn't have believed you. But honestly, right now that's the case. Manning has been awful this year (70.9 QB rating, 3,085 yards, 19 TDs, 19 INTs). He makes more good plays than a lot of QBs in the league, but he also makes a lot more dumb plays. He instills no confidence in you when watching him. If it weren't for the fact that his team wins, he'd be a few spots lower on this list. The thing that is most scary though is that he's getting progressively worse as a QB. His interceptions and fumbles are trending upwards and his touchdowns are going down. That's just an awful sign for a QB who should be entering his prime.
18.) Matt Schaub, QB, Houston Texans - I'm not sure why everyone expected Schaub to come out this year and put up Pro Bowl numbers, but he did very well for a first-year QB. A few starts in Atlanta in relief didn't mean he wouldn't go through some growing pains in Houston. His numbers were pretty solid, he just needs to cut down on the INTs. He had a 66.4 completion percentage, which is very good. He's in the position where he could really step up and improve next season and launch up a few spots. He has the tools to do so and the completion percentage and lack of sacks is promising.
19.) Chad Pennington, QB, New York Jets - If you play Pennington in the right system he can still be a very effective QB. We all know he's not going to scare you with his arm, but that's fine. He just needs to play in a ball control offense. Give him protection and a good running game and he's a playoff QB. He's not going to win games on his own, but he's not going to lose them either. He did lead the NFL in completion percentage through Week 16 (though only 9 games). Obviously that is because most of his passes were dinks and dunks, but it's still not a bad thing. Minnesota could really use a guy like Pennington.
20.) Jon Kitna, QB, Detroit Lions - Kitna makes a lot of stupid plays. That's the best way to describe his game. He gets sacked too much, he throws too many interceptions and he fumbles too much. I also happen to think he says a lot of stupid things. And he's old and has never won a thing in his life. Other than that, he's a great QB. Granted his protection was awful this year and the running game was always questionable, but there's no excuse for having more INTs than TDs when you have Roy Williams and Calvin Johnson on your team. If he could cut down on all of the stupid plays, he'd be a viable QB in this league. But I'm not holding my breath.
21.) Sage Rosenfels, QB, Houston Texans - It's a bit shocking, I know, but Rosenfels actually had a good season. He's never really had an opportunity to prove himself, but I think he could actually play a little in the NFL. Over the past two years, on an average at best Houston team, he's had 17 TDs and 12 INTs and a 65.1 completion percentage - pretty good numbers. Maybe if you gave him a full season somewhere he'd be awful, but I think he'd be pretty solid. No, he's not a legitimate QB in the league, but his numbers are much better than a lot of young players that will soon be appearing on this list.
22.) Jason Campbell, QB, Washington Redskins - Here's one of those young, up-and-comers in the NFL. I think Campbell is decent, but nothing he does is impressive. And he's been outplayed, albeit in the very short term, by Doug Collins this year. The jury is very much still out, but he's improved slightly from his starting point last season. I don't really see him as being anything more than an average QB in this league, but maybe he'll be slightly better than that.
23.) Vince Young, QB, Tennessee Titans - Just because your team wins, it doesn't mean you are a good QB. Let's be clear, the Titans win because of their defense and this year because of a solid ground attack by LenDale White. Young has 9 TDs and 17 INTs - by far the worst ratio in the NFL. And his 376 yards and 3 TDs rushing aren't exactly groundbreaking either. Tarvaris Jackson, Tony Romo, Ben Roethlisberger and Jay Cutler are about as effective running (similar yards per carry and TDs). Young is a massively overrated QB. He hasn't proven anything in this league yet. His completion percentage and total yards have gone up this year, but almost every other number (TDs, INTs, rushing yards, rushing TDs) has gotten worse. He has a lot of room for improvement and he better start showing it if he really wants to be a top 15 QB in the league.
24.) Damon Huard, QB, Kansas City Chiefs - Huard really impressed me last year. I thought he had a chance to be a halfway decent QB (in the 15-20 range) in the league. Afterall, he did have 11 TDs and only 1 INT. Well, he was given a chance this year from the start and he's been much worse (11 TDs, 13 INTs). He's really only a back-up in this league. As far as back-ups go, he's not awful.
25.) Brian Griese, QB, Chicago Bears - Another back-up in the NFL thrust into a starting role. The only difference is, I never thought he was anything but a back-up. But, again, as far as back-ups go, he's really not that terrible. He's an experienced player at least. You just wish he'd cut down on the interceptions, since there's nothing more devastating than bringing in a back-up and having him throw INTs. Granted he threw the ball 45 times or more in three games this season, which makes absolutely no sense for a player like Griese on a defensive-oriented team.
26.) Trent Edwards, QB, Buffalo Bills - I'd like to rank Edwards higher, but he's way too young and he's done nothing to deserve it. Still though, I like his toughness and he certainly has the ability to move up on this list. I certainly think he has more talent than J.P. Losman, even if that isn't saying much. He should get the chance to start the season next year as the Bills starter and he'll get his chance to prove his ability. The schedule will be tougher next season and teams will be game planning for you. I'd like to see him succeed.
27.) Tarvaris Jackson, QB, Minnesota Vikings - Honestly, I thought Jackson had about a zero percent chance of starting for the Vikings next year and assumed the Vikings would draft a QB this upcoming draft. Then Jackson showed a little skill over a few weeks and I began to think maybe he did have some promise. Turns out, not surprisingly, that was about 100% because of Chester Taylor and Adrian Peterson. But, hey, those guys will be back next year and if Jackson can play all year like he did in Weeks 12 to 14 he could be a starter in this league. That's a big if though. Right now, I'm leaning toward taking a QB if I'm the Vikings, but it's a tough call.
28.) Joey Harrington, QB, Atlanta Falcons - Another year, another benching for Harrington. He's clearly not an NFL QB. But don't worry, he's a good guy and one hell of a piano player. To be fair, he's not nearly as bad as many would have you believe, but he also has no business starting in the NFL. He had a fairly respectable 61.8 completion percentage and a 7 TD-8 INT ratio is bad, but not Vince Young bad or even Tarvaris Jackson or Trent Dilfer bad. He's also not nearly as bad as David Carr, so at least he has that going for him.
29.) Kyle Boller, QB, Baltimore Ravens - Boller is in a similar situation to Harrington. His career is ostensibly over. If he wants to hang on and be a back-up in the league for a few more years, go for it. He's not a starter. Unless the Ravens, and Ozzie Newsome, are crazier than I think, they should draft a QB next year and start him Week 1. The team is collapsing as it is, they might as well start over at QB too. Just be sure the guy you draft (whether it's Brian Brohm, Andre Woodson or Matt Ryan) is mentally tough because his rookie season will be awful.
30.) Cleo Lemon, QB, Miami Dolphins - You can't say he doesn't try hard. Of course, you also can't say he's very good. For the record, I think John Beck is pretty awful too. Bill Parcells has his hands full. If I'm the Dolphins I trade the No. 1 pick and try to get as much for it as possible. I don't think you necessarily draft one of the Big Three in the draft next year, because it will do nothing but crush his spirit to be on this team. There's no question the QB is the most important position, but it's also the most volatile. Bringing a young QB into a halfway decent team is always better than bringing one into an awful team. Even if that seems obvious, it rarely gets done.
So there's your NFL QB rankings. It's a pretty motley crew after you get past the top 13. At least we have two of the greatest of all-time to watch at No. 1 and No. 2.
Tuesday, August 14, 2007
The Duncan Celtics
Okay, so it took me about two months longer than I thought it would, but I finally finished my look into what would've happened had the Boston Celtics won the 1997 NBA Draft Lottery and the resulting No. 1 overall pick which would've turned into Tim Duncan.
This is a very in-depth look at what would have happened to the Celtics over the next decade, up until this off-season of 2007. It started out as a moderately long essay and turned into more or less a book. It's not short, so don't expect to be able to read it in one sitting (unless you plan on sitting in front of a computer screen for 3 or 4 hours).
I'm sure there are a few factual errors in this, because it took a lot of research. Ten years of basketball is a lot of information and the chances of me going back and documenting everything perfectly is unlikely. If you notice any factual errors (as opposed to just opinion), feel free to e-mail me. Of course, feel free to e-mail me with your comments too.
So, enjoy.
The Duncan Celtics (the link will take you to Google docs, for easy reading)
This is a very in-depth look at what would have happened to the Celtics over the next decade, up until this off-season of 2007. It started out as a moderately long essay and turned into more or less a book. It's not short, so don't expect to be able to read it in one sitting (unless you plan on sitting in front of a computer screen for 3 or 4 hours).
I'm sure there are a few factual errors in this, because it took a lot of research. Ten years of basketball is a lot of information and the chances of me going back and documenting everything perfectly is unlikely. If you notice any factual errors (as opposed to just opinion), feel free to e-mail me. Of course, feel free to e-mail me with your comments too.
So, enjoy.
The Duncan Celtics (the link will take you to Google docs, for easy reading)
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