Pay vs. Performance Among MLB Pitchers

Common sense would seem to dictate that pitchers who are paid the most would perform the best. This is, of course, not true. Due to free agency, most pitchers who perform the best are actually paid less than those who perform worse. Though, obviously, those higher paid pitchers must've pitched well at some point (unless your name is Chan Ho Park). The general theory is that even though pitchers who haven't yet hit arbitration or free agency may pitch better, they will get their payday when arbitration and eventually free agency do come around even if their betters years may be behind them (i.e., Gil Meche).

It's a strange system.

So why compare performance vs. salary in baseball? Well, because it illustrates one very important thing related to the information above. It doesn't pay to sign veterans. There's been a trend in baseball over the last few years (maybe longer) to emphasize the importance of developing your own starting pitchers. The theory is as I mentioned above - you pay a lot more and often a pitcher's best years are behind him. This is why teams like the Yankees and Rays have been so cautious with pitchers like Joba Chamberlain and David Price respectively. And regardless of whether you agree with how those players are being handled, the reason why they are being handled like fine china is unquestionably true. Just look at these numbers:

Top Ten Pitchers by 2009 Yearly Salary

1.) Johan Santana (New York Mets) - $18,876,139
2.) Carlos Zambrano (Chicago Cubs) - $18,750,000
3.) Barry Zito (San Francisco Giants) - $18,500,000
4.) A.J. Burnett (New York Yankees) - $16,500,000
5.) C.C. Sabathia (New York Yankees) - $15,285,714
6.) Jason Schmidt (Los Angeles Dodgers) - $15,217,401
7.) Derek Lowe (Atlanta Braves) - $15,000,000
8.) Roy Halladay (Toronto Blue Jays) - $14,250,000
9.) Roy Oswalt (Houston Astros) - $14,000,000
9t.) Mark Buehrle (Chicago White Sox) - $14,000,000

1.) Johan Santana (age 30) – 13-9, 3.13 ERA, 166.2 IP, 146-46 K-BB, 1.21 WHIP
2.) Carlos Zambrano (age 28) – 8-6, 3.77 ERA, 143.1 IP, 123-66 K-BB, 1.41 WHIP
3.) Barry Zito (age 31) – 9-12, 3.99 ERA, 171.1 IP, 132-70 K-BB, 1.34 WHIP
4.) A.J. Burnett (age 32) – 11-8, 4.19 ERA, 176 IP, 163-85 K-BB, 1.40 WHIP
5.) C.C. Sabathia (age 29) – 16-7, 3.40 ERA, 206.1 IP, 177-54 K-BB, 1.13 WHIP
6.) Jason Schmidt (age 36) – 2-2, 5.60 ERA, 17.2 IP, 8-12 K-BB, 1.59 WHIP
7.) Derek Lowe (age 36) – 14-9, 4.47 ERA, 177 IP, 97-54 K-BB, 1.47 WHIP
8.) Roy Halladay (age 32) – 14-9, 3.03 ERA, 208 IP, 183-29 K-BB, 1.12 WHIP
9.) Roy Oswalt (age 32) – 8-6, 4.03 ERA, 176.1 IP, 135-42 K-BB, 1.24 WHIP
9t.). Mark Buehrle (age 30) – 12-7, 3.77 ERA, 191 IP, 95-38 K-BB, 1.24 WHIP

Average – 3.94 ERA, 1.32 WHIP
Total Salary - $160,379,254 Average Salary - $16,037,925.40

Top Ten Pitchers by 2009 Performance (based on Yahoo! Fantasy Rankings)

1.) Tim Lincecum – 13-5, 2.34 ERA, 200.1 IP, 233-55 K-BB, 1.02 WHIP
2.) Zack Greinke – 13-8, 2.19 ERA, 205.1 IP, 216-42 K-BB, 1.07 WHIP
3.) Dan Haren – 13-8, 2.82 ERA, 201.1 IP, 197-31 K-BB, 0.95 WHIP
4.) Chris Carpenter – 16-3, 2.16 ERA, 166.2 IP, 129-30 K-BB, 0.97 WHIP
5.) Javier Vazquez – 12-9, 3.06 ERA, 188.1 IP, 208-40 K-BB, 1.06 WHIP
6.) Adam Wainwright – 18-7, 2.59 ERA, 205 IP, 175-60 K-BB, 1.21 WHIP
7.) Felix Hernandez – 14-5, 2.61 ERA, 200.1 IP, 188-62 K-BB, 1.16 WHIP
8.) Justin Verlander – 16-8, 3.24 ERA, 203 IP, 230-57 K-BB, 1.16 WHIP
9.) Roy Halladay – 14-9, 3.03 ERA, 208 IP, 183-29 K-BB, 1.12 WHIP
10.) Josh Johnson – 14-4, 3.06 ERA, 188.1 IP, 166-51 K-BB, 1.11 WHIP

1.) Tim Lincecum (age 25) - $650,000
2.) Zack Greinke (age 25) - $3,750,000
3.) Dan Haren (age 28) - $7,500,000
4.) Chris Carpenter (age 34) - $13,302,583
5.) Javier Vazquez (age 33) - $11,500,000
6.) Adam Wainwright (age 28) - $2,787,500
7.) Felix Hernandez (age 23) - $3,800,000
8.) Justin Verlander (age 26) - $3,675,000
9.) Roy Halladay (age 32) - $14,250,000
10.) Josh Johnson (age 25) - $1,400,000

Average – 2.71 ERA, 1.08 WHIP
Total Salary - $62,615,083 Average Salary - $6,261,508.30

You'll notice that only one player makes both lists - Roy Halladay. You'll also notice that the average age on the second list is 27.9 years old, while the highest paid players' average age is 31.6. And by the way, the oldest man on the best performers list, Chris Carpenter, missed essentially all of the last two seasons due to injury. I will note, however, that the highest paid players list only has a couple real albatrosses on it - Barry Zito and Jason Schmidt. Last year's list was actually much worse with both Tim Hudson's and Mike Hampton's contracts also in the top 10. Only one player crossed over in last year's lists as well - Johan Santana. And frankly, if Santana hadn't gotten injured he'd probably have done the same again.