Common sense would seem to dictate that pitchers who are paid the most would perform the best. This is, of course, not true. Due to free agency, most pitchers who perform the best are actually paid less than those who perform worse. Though, obviously, those higher paid pitchers must've pitched well at some point (unless your name is Chan Ho Park). The general theory is that even though pitchers who haven't yet hit arbitration or free agency may pitch better, they will get their payday when arbitration and eventually free agency do come around even if their betters years may be behind them (i.e., Gil Meche).
It's a strange system.
So why compare performance vs. salary in baseball? Well, because it illustrates one very important thing related to the information above. It doesn't pay to sign veterans. There's been a trend in baseball over the last few years (maybe longer) to emphasize the importance of developing your own starting pitchers. The theory is as I mentioned above - you pay a lot more and often a pitcher's best years are behind him. This is why teams like the Yankees and Rays have been so cautious with pitchers like Joba Chamberlain and David Price respectively. And regardless of whether you agree with how those players are being handled, the reason why they are being handled like fine china is unquestionably true. Just look at these numbers:
Top Ten Pitchers by 2009 Yearly Salary
1.) Johan Santana (New York Mets) - $18,876,139
2.) Carlos Zambrano (Chicago Cubs) - $18,750,000
3.) Barry Zito (San Francisco Giants) - $18,500,000
4.) A.J. Burnett (New York Yankees) - $16,500,000
5.) C.C. Sabathia (New York Yankees) - $15,285,714
6.) Jason Schmidt (Los Angeles Dodgers) - $15,217,401
7.) Derek Lowe (Atlanta Braves) - $15,000,000
8.) Roy Halladay (Toronto Blue Jays) - $14,250,000
9.) Roy Oswalt (Houston Astros) - $14,000,000
9t.) Mark Buehrle (Chicago White Sox) - $14,000,000
1.) Johan Santana (age 30) – 13-9, 3.13 ERA, 166.2 IP, 146-46 K-BB, 1.21 WHIP
2.) Carlos Zambrano (age 28) – 8-6, 3.77 ERA, 143.1 IP, 123-66 K-BB, 1.41 WHIP
3.) Barry Zito (age 31) – 9-12, 3.99 ERA, 171.1 IP, 132-70 K-BB, 1.34 WHIP
4.) A.J. Burnett (age 32) – 11-8, 4.19 ERA, 176 IP, 163-85 K-BB, 1.40 WHIP
5.) C.C. Sabathia (age 29) – 16-7, 3.40 ERA, 206.1 IP, 177-54 K-BB, 1.13 WHIP
6.) Jason Schmidt (age 36) – 2-2, 5.60 ERA, 17.2 IP, 8-12 K-BB, 1.59 WHIP
7.) Derek Lowe (age 36) – 14-9, 4.47 ERA, 177 IP, 97-54 K-BB, 1.47 WHIP
8.) Roy Halladay (age 32) – 14-9, 3.03 ERA, 208 IP, 183-29 K-BB, 1.12 WHIP
9.) Roy Oswalt (age 32) – 8-6, 4.03 ERA, 176.1 IP, 135-42 K-BB, 1.24 WHIP
9t.). Mark Buehrle (age 30) – 12-7, 3.77 ERA, 191 IP, 95-38 K-BB, 1.24 WHIP
Average – 3.94 ERA, 1.32 WHIP
Total Salary - $160,379,254 Average Salary - $16,037,925.40
Top Ten Pitchers by 2009 Performance (based on Yahoo! Fantasy Rankings)
1.) Tim Lincecum – 13-5, 2.34 ERA, 200.1 IP, 233-55 K-BB, 1.02 WHIP
2.) Zack Greinke – 13-8, 2.19 ERA, 205.1 IP, 216-42 K-BB, 1.07 WHIP
3.) Dan Haren – 13-8, 2.82 ERA, 201.1 IP, 197-31 K-BB, 0.95 WHIP
4.) Chris Carpenter – 16-3, 2.16 ERA, 166.2 IP, 129-30 K-BB, 0.97 WHIP
5.) Javier Vazquez – 12-9, 3.06 ERA, 188.1 IP, 208-40 K-BB, 1.06 WHIP
6.) Adam Wainwright – 18-7, 2.59 ERA, 205 IP, 175-60 K-BB, 1.21 WHIP
7.) Felix Hernandez – 14-5, 2.61 ERA, 200.1 IP, 188-62 K-BB, 1.16 WHIP
8.) Justin Verlander – 16-8, 3.24 ERA, 203 IP, 230-57 K-BB, 1.16 WHIP
9.) Roy Halladay – 14-9, 3.03 ERA, 208 IP, 183-29 K-BB, 1.12 WHIP
10.) Josh Johnson – 14-4, 3.06 ERA, 188.1 IP, 166-51 K-BB, 1.11 WHIP
1.) Tim Lincecum (age 25) - $650,000
2.) Zack Greinke (age 25) - $3,750,000
3.) Dan Haren (age 28) - $7,500,000
4.) Chris Carpenter (age 34) - $13,302,583
5.) Javier Vazquez (age 33) - $11,500,000
6.) Adam Wainwright (age 28) - $2,787,500
7.) Felix Hernandez (age 23) - $3,800,000
8.) Justin Verlander (age 26) - $3,675,000
9.) Roy Halladay (age 32) - $14,250,000
10.) Josh Johnson (age 25) - $1,400,000
Average – 2.71 ERA, 1.08 WHIP
Total Salary - $62,615,083 Average Salary - $6,261,508.30
You'll notice that only one player makes both lists - Roy Halladay. You'll also notice that the average age on the second list is 27.9 years old, while the highest paid players' average age is 31.6. And by the way, the oldest man on the best performers list, Chris Carpenter, missed essentially all of the last two seasons due to injury. I will note, however, that the highest paid players list only has a couple real albatrosses on it - Barry Zito and Jason Schmidt. Last year's list was actually much worse with both Tim Hudson's and Mike Hampton's contracts also in the top 10. Only one player crossed over in last year's lists as well - Johan Santana. And frankly, if Santana hadn't gotten injured he'd probably have done the same again.
Sunday, September 13, 2009
Friday, September 11, 2009
Making the Move to Triple-A (aka the NL)
Anyone following this season in baseball, especially the Red Sox, has seen the remarkable difference in pitching in the National League as opposed to the American League. Everyone has taken note of John Smoltz moving from the Red Sox to the Cardinals and then Brad Penny doing the same weeks later (to the Giants).
I don't really want to get into the reasons why pitchers pitch much better in the NL. We all know about the designated hitter and the disparity between payrolls (specifically the 1st, 3rd, 4th, 5th and 6th-highest payrolls in baseball in the AL in 2008) and any number of other theories. But the real question is - is it true? Is there really a wide disparity between NL earned run averages and AL earned run averages? Most people have theorized the number is about .75 runs fewer in the NL than it is in the AL. No one ever quotes a specific study to support this though and I'm guessing it's just one of many theories in MLB that go assumed and unchecked.
So what if we checked every pitcher in baseball over the past five years that has switched leagues. What would the numbers show? I compared both pitchers who transitioned during the season (by trade or release) and those that signed or were traded in the offseason. First I looked at their season in the AL and then their season in the NL. For pitchers who transitioned midseason (say John Smoltz this year) I compared their statistics during the one season before and after switching teams. For those that transitioned in the offseason, I compared them from one season to the next. I thought it was most important to look at their years back-to-back because that is when they were pitching most similarly. Obviously there are a thousand different factors that could mess with the numbers - everything from injuries to changed pitching coaches to heartbreak caused by losing your trophy wife. You'll just have to excuse those issues because they are impossible to account for. I also looked solely at starting pitchers, though I imagine relief pitchers would follow a similar trajectory.
It turns out the theories are fairly accurate, though they actually low-ball the number by a bit. Over the past five years, the average is actually -0.92 earned runs average when a pitcher transitions from the American League to the National League. There is, in fact, only one season in which the numbers actually went up (2007). That number is largely skewed by Mike Maroth who went from Detroit to St. Louis in midseason and went from a 5.06 ERA to a 10.66 ERA. Why they pitched Maroth 38 innings with a 10.66 ERA and 2.32 WHIP I have no idea, though seven appearances came in relief. And even with that number factored in the overall ERA for the five starters who transitioned during the 2007 calendar year the AL ERA was 4.35 in 600.2 IP and the NL ERA was 4.39 in 606.1 IP - just a miniscule (and statistically insignificant) difference of .04.
The most stark difference came last year when the ERA for the six pitchers in the AL was 4.20 in 891 IP and then plummeted to 2.93 in the NL - a difference of 1.27. Those numbers can largely be attributed to three pitchers - C.C. Sabathia going to Milwaukee (1.65 ERA), Rich Harden going to Chicago (1.77 ERA), and Johan Santana joining the Mets before the season (2.53 ERA). But even pitchers like Odalis Perez and Joe Blanton saw significant declines once they joined the NL.
You can take a look at the entire statistical analysis. I didn't want to post it, because it's so dry (it's a list of names and their statistics). And while it's not necessarily surprising, it is quite interesting to read (if you're crazy like me).
I don't really want to get into the reasons why pitchers pitch much better in the NL. We all know about the designated hitter and the disparity between payrolls (specifically the 1st, 3rd, 4th, 5th and 6th-highest payrolls in baseball in the AL in 2008) and any number of other theories. But the real question is - is it true? Is there really a wide disparity between NL earned run averages and AL earned run averages? Most people have theorized the number is about .75 runs fewer in the NL than it is in the AL. No one ever quotes a specific study to support this though and I'm guessing it's just one of many theories in MLB that go assumed and unchecked.
So what if we checked every pitcher in baseball over the past five years that has switched leagues. What would the numbers show? I compared both pitchers who transitioned during the season (by trade or release) and those that signed or were traded in the offseason. First I looked at their season in the AL and then their season in the NL. For pitchers who transitioned midseason (say John Smoltz this year) I compared their statistics during the one season before and after switching teams. For those that transitioned in the offseason, I compared them from one season to the next. I thought it was most important to look at their years back-to-back because that is when they were pitching most similarly. Obviously there are a thousand different factors that could mess with the numbers - everything from injuries to changed pitching coaches to heartbreak caused by losing your trophy wife. You'll just have to excuse those issues because they are impossible to account for. I also looked solely at starting pitchers, though I imagine relief pitchers would follow a similar trajectory.
It turns out the theories are fairly accurate, though they actually low-ball the number by a bit. Over the past five years, the average is actually -0.92 earned runs average when a pitcher transitions from the American League to the National League. There is, in fact, only one season in which the numbers actually went up (2007). That number is largely skewed by Mike Maroth who went from Detroit to St. Louis in midseason and went from a 5.06 ERA to a 10.66 ERA. Why they pitched Maroth 38 innings with a 10.66 ERA and 2.32 WHIP I have no idea, though seven appearances came in relief. And even with that number factored in the overall ERA for the five starters who transitioned during the 2007 calendar year the AL ERA was 4.35 in 600.2 IP and the NL ERA was 4.39 in 606.1 IP - just a miniscule (and statistically insignificant) difference of .04.
The most stark difference came last year when the ERA for the six pitchers in the AL was 4.20 in 891 IP and then plummeted to 2.93 in the NL - a difference of 1.27. Those numbers can largely be attributed to three pitchers - C.C. Sabathia going to Milwaukee (1.65 ERA), Rich Harden going to Chicago (1.77 ERA), and Johan Santana joining the Mets before the season (2.53 ERA). But even pitchers like Odalis Perez and Joe Blanton saw significant declines once they joined the NL.
You can take a look at the entire statistical analysis. I didn't want to post it, because it's so dry (it's a list of names and their statistics). And while it's not necessarily surprising, it is quite interesting to read (if you're crazy like me).
Hitting the Restart Button
Okay, so if you hadn't noticed I haven't made a post in the last year. I've, uh, been busy. But I'm relaunching the blog because I've been feeling a real jonesing to write some sports-related articles/columns. (Frankly, I've been writing a LOT of fictional work for the past year.)
But now, I'm back. I'm sure you're quite glad. And my first post, which I'll make in just a moment, will be another in-depth study. This time I'll stick to the reality (as opposed to the fantasy I wrote in my Duncan Celtics epic). It will be a fairly in-depth study of pitchers moving from the American League to the National League.
Stay tuned.
But now, I'm back. I'm sure you're quite glad. And my first post, which I'll make in just a moment, will be another in-depth study. This time I'll stick to the reality (as opposed to the fantasy I wrote in my Duncan Celtics epic). It will be a fairly in-depth study of pitchers moving from the American League to the National League.
Stay tuned.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)